PFG Should I Buy
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PFG is NOT a good buy right now at ~94.9 pre-market. The technical trend is bullish, but price is extended/near resistance with overbought short-term momentum, insiders are aggressively selling, and Wall Street’s near-term stance has drifted toward Neutral/Underweight with several price targets below the current price. With earnings (QDEC 2025) coming on 2026-02-09, the risk/reward for an impatient entry here is unfavorable versus waiting for a pullback toward support.
Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.303), signaling upside momentum. However, RSI_6 is elevated at 71.79 (stretched/near overbought), which often precedes consolidation. Price is trading above the pivot (91.375) and is already around/above R1 (94.555); the next upside level is R2 at 96.52. Downside levels to watch are pivot ~91.38 then S1 ~88.20. Net: uptrend intact, but entry here is late-cycle in the current move (poor immediate upside vs nearby pullback risk).
Technically strong uptrend with positive MACD momentum.
Pattern-based forward odds in the dataset point to a positive skew over the next month (model indicates ~8.54% next-month scenario).
Some bullish analyst commentary remains (e.g., Piper Sandler Overweight with $100 PT; JPMorgan PT $103 even after downgrade).
Life insurer macro backdrop described as generally favorable by some desks heading into 2026 (capital strength/healthy balance sheets).
Heavy insider selling: insiders are selling and the selling amount rose ~380% over the last month (strong near-term negative signal).
Price is near resistance (around R
with RSI stretched—setup favors chop/pullback rather than a clean breakout.
Analyst stance has softened: a key recent change is JPMorgan downgrade to Neutral; multiple firms sit at Neutral/Underweight and several targets (Barclays $85, BofA $88, UBS $
are below the current ~95 level.
Earnings event risk ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 after hours (consensus EPS est. 2.
can re-rate the stock quickly.
No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh positive catalyst to justify chasing at resistance).
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$3.943B (+5.6% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: net income fell to ~$213.8M (-197% YoY) and EPS to $0.95 (-200% YoY). This is a major negative growth trend in earnings versus sales and suggests either significant one-time impacts or margin/market pressure. Into the next catalyst window, the market will focus on whether earnings normalize in the upcoming QDEC 2025 report (2026-02-09).
Recent trend: ratings/targets are mixed-to-cautious with a noticeable drift toward Neutral/Underweight. Key moves include JPMorgan downgrading to Neutral (PT $103) and Barclays maintaining Underweight while raising PT to $85; UBS stayed Neutral with PT $92; BofA stayed Neutral with PT $88; Piper Sandler stayed Overweight with PT $100; Morgan Stanley remains Equal Weight/Underweight across updates with mid/high-80s to low-90s targets. Wall Street pros: benefits from a generally constructive life-insurance macro narrative and some upside targets (100–103). Cons: multiple major targets sit below the current price and several firms are not recommending aggressive buying, implying limited near-term upside at this level.
