Should I Buy PBF? PBF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy PBF Energy Inc (PBF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

35.510

1 Day change

2.96%

52 Week Range

41.480

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

PBF is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The chart trend is constructive (bullish moving averages and RSI not overbought), but options sentiment is notably defensive (put-heavy) and the statistical pattern outlook flags higher downside risk over the next month. With earnings coming 2026-02-12 (pre-market) and EPS expected to be negative (-0.15 est.), the near-term setup is not compelling enough to justify chasing an entry today.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Pre-market is 32.87 (-1.17%) with SP500 -0.5% (risk-off tape). Trend/price structure remains bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 implies a sustained uptrend. Momentum is positive but cooling: MACD histogram +0.285 and positively contracting (bullish, but losing thrust). RSI(6)=62.6 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought).

Key levels: Pivot 32.386 is the first area to hold; losing it increases odds of a move toward S1 29.888. Upside levels are R1 34.883 then R2 36.426. Near-term pattern stats imply ~+0.27% next day, +1.7% next week, but -6.53% next month, suggesting near-term stability followed by elevated medium-term downside risk.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning reads bearish/hedged: open interest put/call at 1.94 (puts dominate), and volume put/call at 1.32 (today’s flow also put-skewed). Liquidity/participation is not extreme today: volume is ~52% of 30-day average, while open interest activity is slightly elevated (~107% vs avg). Volatility is high but not at an extreme: 30D IV 62.71 vs HV 65.65, with IV percentile ~59.6 (mid-range). Net takeaway: market participants are leaning defensive rather than positioning for immediate upside continuation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- If West Coast balances tighten as expected and Martinez-related benefits materialize, the stock could re-rate toward peer valuations (a recurring thesis in recent notes).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Options sentiment is meaningfully defensive (high put/call on both OI and volume), inconsistent with an “urgent buy” setup.
- Pattern-based outlook suggests elevated downside risk over the next month (-6.53%).
- Next earnings: QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-12 pre-market, with EPS expected at -0.15, creating a near-term event risk window.
- No supportive near-term news catalysts in the past week.
- Trading trends: hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no strong accumulation signal). No recent politician/congress trading data to confirm conviction.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: 7.651B, -8.72% YoY (contraction).
Net income: 170.1M, down sharply YoY (reported as -159.50% YoY in the snapshot).
EPS: 1.44, down sharply YoY (reported as -158.06% YoY).
Gross margin: 8.48, +98.59% YoY (margin improved, but bottom-line and revenue trends deteriorated). Overall: operating profitability/margins improved, but headline growth and earnings power versus last year weakened materially—consistent with a cyclical refiner profile and adding uncertainty into the upcoming earnings cycle.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend is mixed but improving: after a bearish turn in early Dec (Wolfe downgrade to Underperform, PT 23), the tape of analyst actions shifted more constructive with Mizuho upgrading to Neutral (PT 38) in Dec and Piper Sandler upgrading to Overweight (PT 40) in Jan. UBS remains Buy (PT 42) (older but still supportive).

Wall Street pros: potential West Coast tightening into 2026, leverage to PADD 5, and valuation/re-rating potential if operational catalysts deliver. Wall Street cons: sector headwinds, margin sensitivity (distillate cracks), and execution timing (e.g., restart-related uncertainty) leading to divergent targets and ratings.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PBF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PBF is 32.22 USD with a low forecast of 23 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

5 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 34.490

Low

Averages

32.22

High

Current: 34.490

Low

Averages

32.22

High

Piper Sandler

Underweight -> Overweight

upgrade

$42 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$42 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

upgrade

Underweight -> Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler upgraded PBF Energy to Overweight from Underweight with a price target of $40, down from $42.

Piper Sandler

Piper

Underweight -> Overweight

upgrade

$42 -> $40

2026-01-08

Reason

Piper Sandler

Piper

Price Target

$42 -> $40

2026-01-08

upgrade

Underweight -> Overweight

Reason

As previously reported, Piper Sandler double upgraded PBF Energy to Overweight from Underweight with a price target of $40, down from $42. The firm expects West Coast balances to tighten materially in 2026. Despite the delay at Martinez, PBF remains amongst the most levered to PADD 5. While organic free cash flow generation trails peers, insurance proceeds will provide needed balance sheet support, offering the potential for shareholder returns should margins show upside, Piper adds. At about 4-times EV/EBITDA, valuation remains inexpensive, and it is the only U.S. refiner trading well below its recent highs.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for PBF

Unlock Now

PBF Should I Buy

PBF Should I Buy

Should You Buy PBF Energy Inc (PBF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch