Should I Buy PAX? PAX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

14.160

1 Day change

2.98%

52 Week Range

17.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Buy now. PAX is trading pre-market around 14.58 (near key support S2=14.36) with an extremely oversold RSI (RSI_6≈10.5) and very bullish options positioning (very low put/call ratios). While the MACD is still bearishly expanding (trend pressure remains), the setup favors an oversold rebound from support rather than waiting for a cleaner trend reversal—especially given the user’s impatient profile and the lack of a need to optimize entry timing.

Technical Analysis

Price/levels: Pre-market ~14.58, sitting just above S2=14.36 and below S1=15.109, with Pivot at 16.322 overhead (meaning the stock is currently trading in a weaker zone but at a nearby support area). Momentum: MACD histogram -0.32 and negatively expanding indicates the prevailing trend has been bearish and downside momentum has not fully cooled. Oscillators: RSI_6 ~10.55 signals an extreme oversold condition, increasing the odds of a short-term snapback. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the prior trend may be losing clarity/strength; combined with oversold RSI, this often precedes mean-reversion bounces. Pattern/stat model: Similar-pattern analysis indicates a high probability of near-term upside (+5.11% next day, +4.39% next week, +11.64% next month), supporting a tactical long entry near support.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put/call ratios are extremely low on both open interest (0.11) and volume (0.09), reflecting strongly bullish/skewed call interest. Activity: Today’s option volume (47) is elevated vs the 30-day average (114.63% of avg), suggesting fresh interest. Volatility: IV30 ~32.98 vs historical vol ~22.96 implies options are pricing more movement than recent realized volatility; IV percentile ~52.4 (mid-range) indicates not extremely expensive but not cheap either. Takeaway: Options flow and positioning are decisively bullish and consistent with traders leaning toward an upside rebound from current depressed levels.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Oversold rebound setup: RSI is extremely oversold and price is near S2 support (14.36), improving short-term bounce odds.
Bullish options sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI and volume) point to aggressive call-skew.
Analyst support: Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy and raised PT to $20 (from $18), reinforcing upside narrative.
Growth momentum (latest reported quarter): 2025/Q3 showed strong YoY revenue growth (+31.81%) and margin improvement.
Event catalyst ahead: Next earnings (QDEC
scheduled 2026-02-10 pre-market—can act as a sentiment/positioning driver in the run-up.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Trend still bearish: MACD is below zero and worsening (negatively expanding), so the stock can continue drifting lower even if oversold.
Overhead resistance: Key reclaim levels are S1=15.109 and Pivot=16.322; failure to regain these can cap rebounds.
No supportive news flow: No recent news in the past week—no fresh external catalyst to immediately reverse the trend.
Earnings risk: Upcoming earnings can introduce gap risk if results or guidance disappoint relative to expectations (Est. EPS ~0.47 for QDEC 2025).
Influential/political activity: No recent congress trading data available; no confirmed politician-driven tailwind from disclosed buys.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q3):

Revenue: 93.43M, +31.81% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: 22.57M, +4743.56% YoY (large jump, likely aided by base effects and/or non-linear cost/fee dynamics).
EPS: 0.14, flat YoY (despite net income surge, per-share growth didn’t expand—watch share count and/or other below-the-line impacts).
Gross margin: 47.54%, +15.64% YoY (profitability trend improved). Overall: Fundamentals in the most recent quarter point to improving growth and margins, supportive of a higher valuation multiple if sustained.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes:

2026-01-28: Goldman Sachs raised PT to $20 from $18; maintained Buy.
2025-12-10: BofA raised PT to $17 from $16; maintained Neutral. Wall Street pros: Multiple PT increases recently, including a bullish Buy view from GS, imply improving confidence and perceived upside from current prices. Wall Street cons: Not unanimous—BofA remains Neutral, suggesting some skepticism on near-term upside, valuation, or visibility. Net take: Analyst trend is modestly improving (targets rising), with overall tone leaning constructive but not universally bullish.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PAX is 17 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 13.750

Low

Averages

High

Current: 13.750

Low

Averages

High

Goldman Sachs

Buy

upgrade

$18 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$18 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

upgrade

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Patria Investments to $20 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

BofA

Craig Siegenthaler

Neutral

maintain

$16 -> $17

2025-12-10

Reason

BofA

Craig Siegenthaler

Price Target

$16 -> $17

2025-12-10

maintain

Neutral

Reason

BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler raised the firm's price target on Patria Investments to $17 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm now favors the alternative asset managers to online brokers due to what it sees as a better valuation and positioning setup combined with a stronger macro backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a note on the brokers, asset managers and exchanges group.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for PAX

Unlock Now

PAX Should I Buy

PAX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch