Should I Buy PAG? PAG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

166.680

1 Day change

2.95%

52 Week Range

189.510

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. PAG is trading in a clearly bearish technical structure (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5 and a MACD histogram that is negative and expanding), and options positioning is skewed defensively (high put open interest vs calls). While the Lexus Orlando acquisition and broadly bullish Street targets support the medium-term story, the near-term tape is weak and the stock is breaking into support. For an impatient buyer looking to enter immediately, the risk/reward is unfavorable today; this is a HOLD (avoid initiating a new position right now).

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum is bearish. The moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend. MACD histogram at -0.68 is below zero and negatively expanding, indicating downside momentum is still building rather than stabilizing.

Price levels: pre-market ~155.30 is pressing into the S1 support zone (155.889). A clean hold and bounce would be needed to justify immediate dip-buying; otherwise the next support is S2 at 152.259. Overhead, the pivot at 161.764 is the first key level the stock would need to reclaim to suggest a trend shift; resistance levels sit at 167.639 (R1) and 171.269 (R2).

RSI_6 at ~25.64 signals short-term oversold conditions (even though labeled 'neutral' in the feed), which can enable a reflex bounce; however, oversold can persist in downtrends.

Pattern-based forward look: similar-candlestick analysis implies a modestly negative bias near-term (-0.76% next day, -0.15% next week) with a small positive tilt over a month (+1.13%).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Open interest put/call ratio of 3.9 is heavily put-skewed, typically signaling cautious-to-bearish positioning (or substantial hedging) around the name. Notably, volume is extremely light (todays_volume=2; put volume=0; call volume=2), so the daily flow isn’t informative—this is more about existing positioning than fresh conviction.

Volatility: 30D IV ~31.16 vs historical vol ~21.38 suggests options are pricing elevated uncertainty. IV percentile ~74.4 reinforces that options are relatively expensive versus the recent distribution, consistent with caution into catalysts (notably earnings on 2026-02-11 pre-market).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

expected to add ~$450M in annualized revenue—supports top-line scale and dealership footprint expansion.
on 2026-02-11 pre-market can reset expectations if margins/earnings stabilize.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

suggests defensive sentiment/hedging overhang.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $7.695B, +1.38% YoY (modest growth).
Net income: $213M, -5.79% YoY (decline).
EPS: 3.23, -4.44% YoY (decline).
Gross margin: 15.67, down ~1.07% YoY (compression).

Takeaway: The company is still growing sales slightly, but profitability is trending down YoY (earnings and margins), which helps explain the current bearish tape despite generally favorable longer-term positioning.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings remain largely positive, but price targets have been trimmed slightly in places due to softer unit expectations.

Barclays (2026-01-21): Overweight; PT cut to $190 from $195 (still bullish, slightly more cautious on near-term).
BofA (2025-12-09): Reinstated Buy; PT $195 (high-income demographic exposure seen as resilient).
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-08): Overweight; PT $180 (cautious into 2026 but still constructive).
JPMorgan (2025-11-05): Neutral; PT $175 (more reserved vs peers).

Wall Street pro view (pros): Resilient parts/service mix, premium/luxury exposure, diversified dealership footprint, strong shareholder return profile. Wall Street con view (cons): Auto unit demand softness and earnings/margin normalization risk; some models remain cautious (e.g., JPM Neutral).

Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided. Insiders: Neutral over the last month (no significant trend).

PAG Should I Buy