Should I Buy PACS? PACS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Pacs Group Inc (PACS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

38.680

1 Day change

4.91%

52 Week Range

43.080

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Buy now. PACS is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~~16) and trading just above key support (~~33.67) with improving downside momentum (MACD histogram still negative but contracting). Fundamentals (2025/Q3) are strong and analysts remain broadly bullish despite lower price targets tied to residual regulatory/legal overhang. For an impatient investor, the current level offers an attractive rebound entry with nearby support and multiple bullish sentiment cues from options.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Setup: Price is weak/extended to the downside but technically set up for a snapback.

Momentum: MACD histogram at -1.041 (below 0) but negatively contracting, which often signals selling pressure is fading.
RSI: RSI_6 = 16.353 (deep oversold), increasing odds of a short-term mean reversion bounce.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the downtrend may be losing force and transitioning toward a base.
Levels: Support S1 = 33.67 (current pre-market 34.18 sits slightly above), next support S2 = 32.044. Pivot resistance = 36.302; then R1 = 38.934.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern study implies modest near-term upside (next day +0.31%, next week +1.22%, next month +6.67%).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Strongly call-skewed.

Put/Call: Open interest P/C = 0.19 and volume P/C = 0.32 indicate heavier call interest/flow (bullish tilt).
Activity: Today’s option volume 10,257 vs 30-day avg is 357.51% (unusually active), suggesting heightened trader attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~146% vs HV ~127%; IV percentile 91.2 (very elevated). Options are pricing big moves; sentiment is bullish, but the market expects volatility.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Oversold technical condition near support (33.
supports a rebound thesis.
Options market skew is bullish (very low put/call ratios) with heavy activity.
Strong growth profile in latest reported quarter (2025/Q
supports a higher fundamental floor.
Audit Committee investigation concluded in November with recommendations being implemented; multiple analysts cite improved compliance/regulatory rigor.
Industry tailwinds (aging population, shift to lower-cost care settings) and acquisition-driven model highlighted positively by UBS/JPM.
Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-18 (AH) can act as a catalyst if execution remains strong (Street EPS est. 0.48).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Price trend remains weak; MACD is still below zero (bearish regime until proven otherwise).
Residual regulatory/legal issues continue to be cited as valuation overhang.
Elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing meaningful downside/upside swings (higher near-term uncertainty).
Key downside risk if support fails: break below ~33.67 can open room toward ~32.04.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $1.3446B, +31.01% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Net income: $52.41M, +235.51% YoY (material profitability improvement).
EPS: $0.32, +220% YoY (strong earnings leverage).
Gross margin: 14.04%, +53.95% YoY (clear margin expansion trend).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Street stance: Predominantly bullish (Buy/Overweight) with price targets recently reset lower but still well above the current ~$34 level.

2026-01-05 Truist: Buy; PT cut to $40 from $48 (target lowered, rating maintained).
2025-12-18 UBS: Buy; PT $42 (resumed; acknowledges regulatory/legal overhang but strong fundamentals).
2025-12-17 JPMorgan: Overweight; PT $44 (reinstated; likes the acquisition/turnaround model).
2025-12-12 Truist: Buy; PT raised to $40 from $32 (improved confidence post-investigation). Wall St pros: Attractive business model, industry tailwinds, acquisition runway, strengthening compliance posture. Wall St cons: Ongoing regulatory/legal issues and the market’s sensitivity to governance/compliance headlines. Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral recent activity (no strong follow-through signal).

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PACS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PACS is 42.6 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 47 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 36.870

Low

Averages

42.6

High

Current: 36.870

Low

Averages

42.6

High

Truist

David MacDonald

Buy

downgrade

$48 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

Reason

Truist

David MacDonald

Price Target

$48 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst David MacDonald lowered the firm's price target on Pacs Group to $40 from $48 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Pacs Group is well-positioned into 2026 following the November conclusion of the Audit Committee investigation with committee recommendations having been or being implemented, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

UBS

NULL -> Buy

downgrade

$50 -> $42

2025-12-18

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$50 -> $42

2025-12-18

downgrade

NULL -> Buy

Reason

UBS resumed coverage of Pacs Group with a Buy rating with a price target of $42, down from $50. Pacs is well-positioned to take advantage of industry tailwinds that include an aging U.S. population, shifts to lower cost site of care settings, and a fragmented industry that provides ample acquisition opportunities of low performing facilities, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The current valuation reflects a few outstanding regulatory and legal issues and fundamentals are holding strong, the firm adds.

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PACS Should I Buy

PACS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Pacs Group Inc (PACS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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