OZK Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
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Not a good buy right now. OZK is trading pre-market around 47.25 with a bearish moving-average structure (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and no proprietary buy signals today. Options positioning is only mildly bullish on volume (put-call 0.52) but neutral on open interest (1.0), while analyst price targets were broadly cut after a Q4 miss and ongoing credit-cost concerns. For an impatient investor, the near-term setup favors waiting/avoiding new longs rather than buying immediately.
Trend/structure: Bearish overall (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests the broader trend is still down despite recent stabilization. Momentum: MACD histogram -0.128 is below zero but negatively contracting, indicating downside momentum is easing (potential basing), not a confirmed reversal. RSI: RSI_6 at 53.1 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal. Key levels: Price (47.25) is slightly below the pivot (47.542). Immediate support is S1 45.995 (then S2 45.039). Resistance is R1 49.089 (then R2 50.045). A clean reclaim/hold above ~49.1 would improve the near-term tape; failing that, risk skews back toward 46. Pattern-based expectation: Similar-pattern stats point to ~-0.28% next day, +0.49% next week, and -3.78% next month—mild near-term chop with negative medium-term bias.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
MACD downside momentum is easing, which can precede a base if price reclaims resistance (~49.1).
Credit-cost risk remains the key overhang: multiple notes highlight elevated provision/NCO noise and potential negative credit migration; Citi maintains a Sell and placed a 30-day downside catalyst watch with a $40 target.
Analyst targets were broadly lowered after Q4 results, reinforcing near-term caution.
Technical trend remains bearish via moving averages; without a breakout above ~49.1, the path of least resistance can still drift toward ~46 support.
No fresh positive news catalysts in the last week to change narrative momentum.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Top-line: Revenue 430.081M, +7.03% YoY (growth holding up). Bottom-line: Net income 171.916M, -3.49% YoY; EPS 1.53, -1.92% YoY (profitability/EPS slipping). Interpretation: Sales growth is intact, but earnings are pressured (consistent with higher provisioning/credit-cost concerns raised by analysts).
Recent trend: Clear pattern of price-target reductions in January 2026 (Morgan Stanley 63->59->57; TD Cowen 61->56->54; Stephens 64->62; Piper 64->62), generally keeping prior ratings (Equal Weight/Buy/Overweight) but with more cautious forward assumptions. Wall Street pros: Many see limited downside from here and improving sentiment later as loan growth outlook improves into 2027; positives include TBVPS growth and historically strong profitability metrics cited by Piper. Wall Street cons: Credit quality/provisioning uncertainty is the central bear case; Citi is explicitly negative (Sell, $40) and expects increased credit pressure in 2026. Net takeaway: Consensus is mixed-to-slightly-positive on rating labels, but directionally cautious via lowered targets—supportive longer-term, not an urgent near-term buy.
