OUST Should I Buy
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OUST is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The short-term technicals are still bearish (negative/expanding MACD histogram and price sitting near key support), and heavy recent insider selling adds near-term downside risk. Despite strong bullish analyst sentiment and constructive options positioning, the chart has not confirmed a reversal; a better “buy now” setup would require a clean bounce off ~$23.23 support or a reclaim of the ~$25.48 pivot.
Trend/price action: Short-term momentum is bearish. MACD histogram is -0.366 and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~33.7 is near oversold territory (weak, but not yet a confirmed reversal signal). Moving averages are converging, which often precedes a bigger move—right now momentum favors the downside. Key levels: Immediate support is S1 ~23.233 (pre-market ~23.06 is hovering just below/around this zone). A breakdown opens room toward S2 ~21.848. Upside levels to reclaim for trend improvement are Pivot ~25.476 first, then R1 ~27.718. Tactical read: Being this close to support can produce sharp dead-cat bounces, but with MACD still deteriorating, the higher-probability trade is to wait for confirmation (bounce + improving momentum) rather than buying into active weakness.
Strong analyst conviction and catalysts: Northland calling Ouster a top pick heading into CES; Cantor upgrade to Overweight.
Product/competitive moat narrative: Department of Defense approval for OS1 high-resolution 3D LiDAR is viewed as a meaningful differentiation.
Growth trajectory improving: Q3 revenue +40.78% YoY and gross margin up to ~42.15% (+10.05% YoY) support the scaling story.
Pattern-based model: Similar candlestick analogs imply a favorable 1-month drift (+10.64% expected in the provided pattern analysis), though near-term is muted.
Bearish near-term momentum: MACD is negative and worsening; price is pressing key support (~23.23). A support break can accelerate selling.
Insider behavior: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~336.91% over the last month—often a near-term sentiment drag.
Profitability still deteriorating: Net loss widened (Net Income -15.07% YoY), and EPS worsened (-31.48% YoY), which can cap rallies when the tape turns risk-off.
No fresh news this week: Lack of immediate positive catalysts means the stock may trade more “technically,” and right now the technicals are weak.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue rose to ~$39.53M (+40.78% YoY), showing strong top-line acceleration. Margins: Gross margin improved to ~42.15% (+10.05% YoY), a meaningful positive trend for operating leverage longer term. Earnings/profitability: Net income fell to about -$21.73M (loss widened, -15.07% YoY) and EPS dropped to -0.37 (-31.48% YoY), indicating the company is still not translating growth into improving bottom-line results yet.
Recent trend: Ratings and targets have moved decisively more bullish. Northland reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $38 (from $30) after Q3; Cantor upgraded to Overweight and raised PT to $33 (from $30); Northland later reinforced OUST as a top pick into 2026/ CES with a $38 PT. Wall Street pros view (bull case): Differentiation/‘moat’ from DoD approval, expanding industrial/smart infrastructure/robotics opportunities, and a long runway (large customer base not yet in full production). Wall Street cons view (bear case): Execution risk in scaling to profitability remains; high volatility and still-negative earnings can punish the stock during drawdowns. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available, and no politician activity was provided.
