OPCH Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Not a good buy right now. OPCH is pulling back within a broader uptrend (bullish moving-average stack), but near-term momentum is weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding), and options flow is leaning bearish/defensive (very high put-call volume ratio). With price sitting just above key support (33.61–34.31) and below the pivot (35.45), the risk/reward for an impatient entry is not attractive until it stabilizes and reclaims at least 34.31 and ideally 35.45.
Trend/momentum: The moving averages are structurally bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), signaling the bigger-picture trend remains up. However, the MACD histogram (-0.162) is below zero and worsening, implying the current swing is still trending down. RSI_6 at ~29.8 indicates short-term oversold/pressure rather than strength. Key levels: Current pre-market ~33.88 is just above S2 (33.605) and below S1 (34.308). The pivot is 35.446, with resistance at 36.585 and 37.288. This placement suggests OPCH is trading in a lower range near support—good for a bounce only if support holds, but vulnerable to another leg down if 33.61 breaks. Pattern/near-term odds: Similar-pattern stats imply a slightly negative next-day bias (40% chance to -1.37%) and roughly flat next week, with modestly positive 1-month drift (+2.03%).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Insider activity is notably supportive: insiders are buying, with buying amount up ~887.6% over the last month.
Wall Street price targets have been moving up (multiple raises and new coverage), reinforcing a constructive medium-term view.
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 (pre-market) with Street EPS est. ~0.42—potential for a beat-and-raise narrative given historical commentary from analysts.
Business backdrop: Home/alternate-site infusion is structurally favored as a lower-cost setting versus hospital infusion, supporting multi-year demand.
Near-term technical momentum is deteriorating (MACD negative and expanding), and price is below key pivot resistance (~35.45).
Options tape is bearishly skewed today (put-heavy volume), suggesting traders are bracing for downside or buying protection.
Fundamental pressure: Gross margin fell ~5.55% YoY in 2025/Q3, and net income slipped ~3.79% YoY—signals that profitability is not expanding alongside revenue.
2026 uncertainty flagged by analysts tied to Stelara dynamics (timing/impact), which can cap enthusiasm and keep the stock range-bound into guidance updates.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$1.435B (+12.24% YoY), showing healthy top-line momentum. EPS rose to $0.32 (+3.23% YoY), but net income declined to ~$51.8M (-3.79% YoY) and gross margin dropped to ~17.88 (-5.55% YoY). Net/net: strong growth, but margin compression is a real headwind and helps explain the current lack of momentum.
Recent trend: Ratings skew constructive with rising targets. Barrington reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $42 (from $38). Stephens initiated Overweight with a $40 PT. Deutsche Bank and BofA reiterated Buy and raised PTs to $36 and $35, respectively. TD Cowen shifted from a cautious stance (PT cut to $27 in Nov) to a much higher PT ($37) while still at Hold. Wall Street pros: durable home-infusion growth, good positioning in site-of-care shift, and potential for execution-driven upside vs guidance. Wall Street cons: 2026 visibility concerns (incl. Stelara-related dynamics) and profitability/margin pressure that could limit multiple expansion.
