ONDS Should I Buy
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BUY now. ONDS has strong near-term catalysts (DCMA Blue List certification for Optimus + FY26 revenue guidance raised to $170M–$180M) and a sharply improving Street outlook (multiple price-target hikes and broad Buy/Outperform coverage). While the tape is currently soft (bearish MACD, price below pivot), the stock is trading right on a key support area (~11.22), and options positioning is decisively call-skewed—suggesting traders are leaning bullish into the catalyst cycle. For an impatient buyer, the current level near support is an acceptable entry rather than waiting for a perfect technical reversal.
Trend/Setup: Short-term momentum is weak-to-bearish: MACD histogram at -0.308 and negatively expanding indicates downside momentum is still present. RSI(6) at ~37.5 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold, but closer to the lower end), consistent with recent selling pressure. Moving averages are converging, suggesting the stock is trying to base but has not confirmed a new uptrend. Key levels: With pre-market ~11.28, ONDS is sitting just above S1 (11.216). That makes this area an immediate “line-in-the-sand” for bulls. Upside inflection is reclaiming the Pivot (12.507); above that, resistance targets are R1 13.798 and R2 14.596. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Defense/procurement credibility: Optimus drone achieved DCMA Blue List status (compliance with defense standards), strengthening competitiveness in military procurement.
Guidance uplift: Company raised FY26 revenue forecast to $170M–$180M, improving forward narrative and visibility.
Industry tailwind: Robotics market growth projections remain strong, supporting long-duration demand for autonomous systems.
Price action/momentum is still bearish short-term (negative, expanding MACD), so the stock can continue to drift lower before the narrative reasserts.
Very high volatility profile (HV/IV >140%) can amplify swings and shakeouts.
Execution risk remains (company is still scaling and integrating growth initiatives), and profitability has not yet followed revenue growth.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$10.10M (+581.95% YoY), showing rapid top-line acceleration. Gross margin improved to ~25.79 (up sharply YoY), indicating better unit economics as the business scales. However, losses remain: net income was about -$8.78M (more negative YoY by ~17.71%), and EPS was -$0.03 (worse YoY). Net takeaway: growth and margin trajectory are improving, but the company is still in an investment/loss phase.
Recent trend: Clear wave of bullish revisions following the virtual investor day and guidance updates. Multiple firms raised price targets and reiterated Buy/Outperform (e.g., Stifel to $18, Oppenheimer to $16, Lake Street to $19, Northland to $16, H.C. Wainwright to $25). Overall Street stance is constructive. Wall Street pros: accelerating momentum/visibility, raised FY26 outlook, differentiated defense drone positioning, and perceived long runway in autonomous systems. Wall Street cons: still early in execution, heavy dependence on scaling/contract conversion, and profitability not yet established. Influential/political flows: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trading trends are reported as neutral.
