Should I Buy ONCY? ONCY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Oncolytics Biotech Inc (ONCY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

0.890

1 Day change

5.86%

52 Week Range

1.510

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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ONCY is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Despite strong positive clinical/FDA headlines, there are no Intellectia buy signals today and the near-term statistical outlook from similar candlestick patterns skews negative (expected weakness over the next week/month). With price sitting just above key support (~$1.00), the setup is more “wait/hold for confirmation” than “buy immediately.”

Technical Analysis

Price/levels: Pre-market ~$1.02 (+0.99%), trading just above S1 support at $1.00 and below the pivot $1.126 (a key reclaim level). If $1.00 fails, next support is ~$0.923 (S2). Upside resistance levels to clear are ~$1.126 (pivot) then ~$1.251 (R1). Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader structure has improved. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.00419) but “positively contracting,” implying bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI_6 at 37.66 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), meaning it’s not flashing a strong dip-buy signal. Pattern-based expectation: Similar candlestick analogs imply a higher likelihood of near-term downside (next week ~-8.51%, next month ~-5.78%), which argues against chasing immediately.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- FDA alignment on Phase 3 design for first-line metastatic pancreatic cancer (material de-risking of trial path and a clear event-driven catalyst).
- Reported 33% objective response rate in second-line KRAS-mutant colorectal cancer (appears meaningfully above historical benchmarks in a tough indication).
- Leadership upgrades (new EVP and VP) and expansion of Scientific Advisory Board, which can strengthen execution credibility.
- Favorable long-term industry backdrop highlighted (oncology therapy market growth).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technical/statistical setup leans bearish (analog-based outlook projects weakness over 1 week/1 month).
- Momentum is not strengthening (MACD positive but contracting) and price is still below the pivot resistance (~$1.126).
- Financial profile remains typical of a development-stage biotech: effectively no revenue and ongoing losses.
- No notable hedge fund/insider accumulation trends cited recently (both described as neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue was 0 (no growth), reflecting a pre-commercial stage. Net income improved YoY to -$14.4M (50.90% improvement), and EPS improved to -$0.14 (16.67% improvement), indicating reduced losses versus the prior year but continued cash burn/negative earnings overall.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: constructive. On 2025-11-17, H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy and raised its price target sharply to $10 from $5, citing compelling GI tumor data and increased confidence ahead of FDA-related milestones. Wall Street pros: strong upside framing tied to pelareorep’s clinical data and perceived regulatory path across multiple high-value indications. Wall Street cons: the bullish view is highly catalyst-dependent (trial/regulatory execution), and the current tape/near-term probability skew does not confirm an immediate entry. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trends.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ONCY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ONCY is 5.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 0.837

Low

Averages

5.5

High

Current: 0.837

Low

Averages

5.5

High

H.C. Wainwright

upgrade

$5 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-11-17

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$5 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-11-17

upgrade

Reason

H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Oncolytics to $10 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the company's "compelling" data in gastrointestinal tumors increase its confidence ahead of the FDA meeting. H.C. Wainwright is increasingly confident that pelareorep is advancing toward "actionable regulatory pathways" across three "high-value" cancer indications.

Lake Street

Chad Messer

initiated

2025-08-13

Reason

Lake Street

Chad Messer

Price Target

2025-08-13

initiated

Reason

Lake Street analyst Chad Messer initiated coverage of Oncolytics with a Buy rating and $7 price target. Oncolytics is emerging under new management with a clear pivotal strategy focused in frontline metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, where \"existing clinical data is strong and the unmet need is clear,\" the analyst tells investors. Pelareorep has shown \"impressive\" increases in survival compared to both historical results and in a randomized study when added to standard of care regimens, added the analyst, who also notes that the FDA has granted fast track designation to pelareorep in pancreatic cancer.

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ONCY Should I Buy

ONCY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Oncolytics Biotech Inc (ONCY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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