Should I Buy ON? ON 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

65.200

1 Day change

3.33%

52 Week Range

66.860

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now at ~$63: near a key pivot zone and below nearby resistance, with weak near-term statistical edge (pattern study points to downside over the next day/month).
No Intellectia “strong buy” triggers today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax signal), so there’s no priority entry signal to override the mixed setup.
Options flow is net cautious (put volume > call volume) and implied volatility is elevated into earnings, which typically reflects heightened uncertainty rather than an easy long setup.
Fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) show declining revenue/earnings and margin compression, while insiders are notably net sellers—both reduce confidence in chasing the price immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.297) but contracting (downtrend pressure easing, not a confirmed uptrend yet).
RSI: RSI(6) ~56.5 (neutral; not oversold, so no clear “buy-the-dip” momentum signal).
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision rather than a clean trend.
Key levels: Pivot ~62.10 (price ~$63 is only modestly above), resistance R1 ~65.64 (overhead supply), support S1 ~58.56 (next meaningful downside level).
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of -2.56% next day and -3.28% next month (near-term edge leans negative).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ~0.93 (roughly balanced to slightly bullish), but volume put/call ~1.61 shows traders leaning more defensive today (puts traded > calls).
Volatility: 30D IV ~61.97 vs historical vol ~44.55; IV percentile ~86.45 (options are expensive, reflecting elevated event risk/pricing-in uncertainty).
Activity: Today’s volume (~5,909) is ~51% of 30D average (not a strong “rush to upside” participation signal).
Earnings proximity: Next earnings (QDec 2025) on 2026-02-09 after hours likely a key driver of near-term options pricing and sentiment.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst target increases recently (e.g., UBS raised PT to $70; multiple firms lifted targets in January), supporting the idea that the cycle may be stabilizing.
- Some constructive commentary tied to industrial rebound/utilization upside (e.g., Piper noting utilization-driven gross margin leverage).
- Earnings on 2026-02-09 (after hours) can act as a catalyst if results/guidance confirm an inflection.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling; selling amount up ~195.61% over the last month (negative signal vs. buying interest).
- Broader market tape is risk-off today (S&P 500 -1.25%), which can pressure semis in the short run.
- Elevated implied volatility into earnings suggests the market expects a meaningful move; options flow today skews protective (puts dominating volume).
- Hedge funds are Neutral with no strong recent accumulation signal.
- No recent congress trading data available (no supportive “influential buyer” signal).

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.551B, down -11.98% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: $255M, down -36.52% YoY (profitability weakening faster than revenue).
EPS: $0.62, down -33.33% YoY.
Gross margin: 37.14%, down -16.78% YoY (margin compression is a key negative trend).
Overall: Results indicate a downcycle/pressure phase rather than accelerating growth at the time of the last report.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up (UBS to $70 from $55; BofA to $65; Piper to $65; Mizuho to $72; several others raised modestly), implying improving expectations off a trough.
Ratings skew: Many firms sit at Neutral/Hold (UBS Neutral, BofA Neutral, BNP Neutral, Stifel Hold, Truist Hold, Cantor Neutral), with fewer outright bullish calls (Piper Overweight, Mizuho Outperform).
Wall Street “pros” view: improving cycle signals (industrial/utilization leverage; potential rebound narrative).
Wall Street “cons” view: ongoing concerns around automotive/competition dynamics in power semis and the fact that many analysts still won’t move beyond Neutral/Hold despite higher targets.

19 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ON stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ON is 61.25 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 80 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

10 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 63.100

Low

Averages

61.25

High

Current: 63.100

Low

Averages

61.25

High

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$55 -> $70

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$55 -> $70

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on On Semi to $70 from $55 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

BNP Paribas

David O'Connor

Underperform -> Neutral

upgrade

$62

2026-01-22

Reason

BNP Paribas

David O'Connor

Price Target

$62

2026-01-22

upgrade

Underperform -> Neutral

Reason

BNP Paribas analyst David O'Connor upgraded On Semi to Neutral from Underperform with a $62 price target given improving business conditions, at least for some of its industrial business. The firm remains concerned about automotive and competitive dynamics in power semis, the analyst noted.

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ON Should I Buy

ON Should I Buy

Should You Buy ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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