Should I Buy OLN? OLN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Olin Corp (OLN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

24.830

1 Day change

6.07%

52 Week Range

28.770

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is being repriced lower after a weak Q4 and weaker near-term outlook, and the setup does not favor an impatient buyer.
Downtrend pressure remains: negative/expanding MACD and a large -8.55% regular-session drop suggest momentum is still bearish.
Wall Street is cutting targets broadly and insiders are selling aggressively, which reduces confidence in a quick rebound.
If forced to act today: only consider after stabilization above the 22.78 pivot/support; otherwise the risk of a quick move toward 20.53 support is material.

Technical Analysis

Price/momentum: sharp selloff (-8.55%) with MACD histogram at -0.0171 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still building.
RSI(6)=51.18: neutral, but neutral RSI during a selloff often signals “not oversold yet,” leaving room for further downside.
Moving averages: converging MAs indicate transition/indecision, but with bearish momentum dominating after earnings.
Key levels: Pivot 22.777 is the near-term line in the sand; below it, next supports are S1 20.527 then S2 19.137. Upside resistance sits at R1 25.027 and R2 26.417.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candlesticks): ~70% chance of -1.18% next day and -3.43% next month, consistent with “dead-cat bounce risk” rather than a clean reversal.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: low put/call ratios (OI and especially volume) imply call-heavy sentiment, but this can reflect speculative dip-buying rather than informed conviction.
Volatility: 30D IV ~59.36 vs HV ~58.35 (similar), but IV percentile 72.91 indicates options are relatively expensive vs the past year—market expects elevated moves after the earnings reset.
Activity: today’s option volume is ~130.65% of 30D average, signaling heightened interest around the post-earnings move.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Potential near-term positive noted by analysts: improving caustic soda pricing/seasonal chlorine demand could provide intermittent upside surprises.
- Call-leaning options flow suggests some traders are positioning for a bounce.
- Any operational normalization after Q4 issues/supply constraints could stabilize results quarter-to-quarter.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings reset: Q4 miss and guidance/trajectory concerns (weak demand macro + higher energy/raw costs impacting CAPV and Winchester).
- Segment headwinds cited by multiple firms: chlorine weakness, epoxy weakness, Winchester destocking/cost inflation, and turnaround/stranded costs.
- Insider selling: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~2223.67% over the last month—bearish for near-term confidence.
- Broader market risk-off: S&P 500 down -1.38% today, which can pressure cyclicals/chemicals further.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $1.665B, down -0.37% YoY (flat-to-down top line).
Profitability: Net income -$85.7M (down -900.93% YoY) and EPS -$0.75 (down -933.33% YoY) show a sharp swing to losses.
Margins: gross margin 1.88, down -81.37% YoY, indicating significant cost/price pressure and/or operational disruptions.
Overall read: fundamentals are deteriorating into FY26, which makes quick upside follow-through less likely.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: overwhelmingly negative revisions—multiple firms lowered price targets after Q4 results and weaker Q1/FY26 outlook.
Notable actions: Morgan Stanley reiterated Underweight (PT cut to $18); Citi/UBS/RBC/Mizuho/Truist largely Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform with PTs clustered around ~$20–$22; BMO reiterated Market Perform (PT $24).
Bull case on the Street: BofA maintained Buy (PT $25) and KeyBanc maintained Overweight (PT $26), implying valuation/normalization upside if CAPV improves.
Bear/base case on the Street: most firms see continued pressure from weak demand, higher costs, and limited near-term improvement—suggesting upside is capped until earnings visibility improves.
Politician/influential trading check: no recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast OLN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OLN is 24 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

7 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 23.410

Low

Averages

High

Current: 23.410

Low

Averages

High

BMO Capital

Market Perform

downgrade

$25 -> $24

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$25 -> $24

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Olin to $24 from $25 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings miss. The company's earnings outlook and FY26 trajectory is coming weaker than expected owing to a weak demand macro and higher energy/raws costs impacting CAPV - Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls - and Winchester segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Citi

Neutral

downgrade

$24 -> $21

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$24 -> $21

2026-02-03

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Olin to $21 from $24 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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OLN Should I Buy

OLN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Olin Corp (OLN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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