Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: near-term technicals are weakening while a recent management change (CFO departure) adds uncertainty.
The longer-term setup is attractive (multiple Buy/Overweight ratings with large upside to targets), but current price action favors waiting for confirmation (reclaiming the pivot ~25.42 and pushing toward 27.15).
Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term momentum — MACD histogram is negative (-0.149) and expanding lower, suggesting downside pressure is increasing.
RSI: RSI(6) ~39.96 (near the lower end of neutral), consistent with weakening demand but not a clear oversold bounce signal yet.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition zone; given the negative MACD, the resolution currently leans bearish.
Key levels: Pivot 25.415 (price 25.24 is below pivot = near-term weak). Support S1 23.678 then S2 22.605. Resistance R1 27.152 then R2 28.225.
Tape/market context: Stock down ~4.33% while S&P 500 is down ~1.38% — relative underperformance today.
Pattern-based projection (provided): higher probability skew to the upside over 1M (30.78%) than 1D/1W, implying this is more of a longer-horizon catalyst trade than an immediate entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI ratio 0.43 is call-heavy, typically a bullish medium-term positioning signal.
Activity: Today’s option volume is ~11.77x the 30-day average, indicating elevated attention/event sensitivity.
Volatility: 30D IV ~89.92 vs HV ~60.27 (IV > HV = options pricing in big moves). However IV rank ~5.87 / IV percentile ~30 suggests IV is low relative to its own recent history, meaning options are not extremely expensive vs prior spikes.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Sector/class read-through: Positive Roche oral SERD data has been repeatedly cited as a favorable read-through for Olema’s palazestrant.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with interim CFO appointment: can pressure sentiment and create near-term uncertainty.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $0 (no commercial revenue yet).
Net income: -$42.217M, improved ~22.17% YoY (loss narrowed), a modest positive trend.
EPS: -$0.49, down ~18.33% YoY (worse per-share loss), a negative trend.
Overall: still a development-stage biotech setup — progress is more about funding runway and clinical milestones than current operating profitability.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings skew strongly positive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform) with multiple price target increases and new coverage initiations.
Notable changes: Citi raised PT dramatically to $60 (from $21) and reiterated Buy; multiple firms lifted PTs into the $38–$48 range after Roche SERD data.
Wall Street pros: palazestrant viewed by several analysts as a potential best-in-class oral SERD with meaningful market opportunity; catalysts ahead keep interest high.
Wall Street cons: acknowledged uncertainties remain around clinical differentiation/complexity and probability-of-success assumptions; execution risk highlighted implicitly by cautious language from some notes.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider trading trend provided as neutral.
Wall Street analysts forecast OLMA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OLMA is 42 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast OLMA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OLMA is 42 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 25.010
Low
20
Averages
42
High
60
Current: 25.010
Low
20
Averages
42
High
60
UBS
Buy
initiated
$45
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$45
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
initiated
Buy
Reason
UBS initiated coverage of Olema Oncology (OLMA) with a Buy rating and $45 price target as the analyst initiated or assumed coverage on 22 small-to-mid cap biotech names. After a rough period, biotech fundamentals are now inflecting, contends the analyst, who expects investor confidence to recover and sees this positioning biotech for strong performance in 2026. Among the group, top picks include Apogee Therapeutics (APGE), Cogent Biosciences (COGT), Kodiak Sciences (KOD), Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA), Inventiva (IVA), SAB Biotherapeutics (SABS) and Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX), which the analyst highlights as having key upcoming catalysts, de-risked best-in-class portfolios, strong data, and broader pipelines.
Piper Sandler
Overweight
initiated
$40
2026-01-07
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$40
2026-01-07
initiated
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Olema Oncology with an Overweight rating and $40 price target. The firm believes the company's palazestrant can become the next "backbone" endocrine therapy in the large ER+/HER2- breast cancer market.
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