Should I Buy OLLI? OLLI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

112.500

1 Day change

5.43%

52 Week Range

141.740

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now: price is sitting just above first support (S1 ~105.83) with short-term momentum washed out, which creates a favorable “buy-the-dip near support” setup for an impatient entry.
Fundamental/Street backdrop remains supportive (strong YoY growth, multiple Buy ratings and raised targets), which increases the odds that weakness gets bought.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
If the stock loses ~105.8 decisively, the next technical magnet is S2 ~103.39 (meaning the trade thesis weakens quickly below support).

Technical Analysis

Trend: bearish/downswing in progress (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating price is below key averages.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.514 and expanding lower = downside momentum is still active.
RSI (6): 33.38 = getting close to oversold conditions (not a confirmed reversal signal, but often consistent with late-stage pullbacks).
Key levels:
- Support: 105.83 (S1) then 103.39 (S2).
- Resistance: 109.78 (pivot) then 113.73 (R1).
Near-term pattern odds (model on similar candles): modest positive bias next day/week, but slightly negative 1-month expectation (fits “bounce risk, trend still heavy”).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call ratios lean bullish (calls > puts), suggesting positioning is not defensive.
Volatility: 30D IV ~44.5 vs historical vol ~35.1 = options are pricing elevated movement; IV percentile ~65 suggests volatility is relatively rich.
Activity: Today’s options volume is very light (total volume ~3), so the put/call read is directionally positive but not strongly confirmed by heavy flow.
Open interest: total OI ~3,584 with call OI (1,871) slightly above put OI (1,713), consistent with a mild bullish tilt.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong recent operating momentum: 2026/Q3 revenue +18.6% YoY, EPS +29.3% YoY.
- Ongoing closeout/liquidation environment cited by analysts (e.g., Big Lots liquidation) can continue to feed attractive inventory and traffic.
- Analyst commentary indicates Q4 sales trends have been tracking ahead of expectations (per Truist card data notes).
- Options positioning (put/call) is modestly constructive rather than fearful.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical picture is still bearish (negative MACD expansion + bearish moving-average stack), so the stock can keep grinding lower even with good fundamentals.
- Gross margin slightly down YoY (39.62%, -0.55ppt), implying some mix/value investment pressure.
- No fresh news catalysts in the last week to force an immediate narrative-driven reversal.
- Hedge funds/insiders show neutral recent activity (no strong “smart money” urgency signal).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3
- Revenue: $613.6M, +18.59% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
- Net income: $46.17M, +28.67% YoY (profit growth outpacing sales).
- EPS: $0.75, +29.31% YoY (solid earnings leverage).
- Gross margin: 39.62%, -0.55% YoY (mild margin compression, but not enough to offset the strong EPS growth).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent 1–2 months): generally constructive—multiple Buys reaffirmed, one notable upgrade, and several targets raised/maintained at high levels; a couple of firms trimmed targets while keeping neutral stances.
Recent changes:
- Truist: Buy; PT raised to $142.
- Loop Capital: upgraded to Buy; PT $135.
- Goldman Sachs: Buy; PT raised to $162.
- BofA: Buy; PT raised to $150.
- Citi / Piper: Buy/Overweight maintained; PTs trimmed but still bullish.
- Wells Fargo / Morgan Stanley: Equal Weight; PTs around $120–$130, citing more medium-term normalization risk.
Wall Street pros: strong execution, favorable closeout sourcing, traffic growth, continued momentum signals.
Wall Street cons: bar remains high after strong run; some expect momentum to fade medium-term; margin pressure/mix/value investments can cap near-term upside.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast OLLI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OLLI is 144.46 USD with a low forecast of 120 USD and a high forecast of 162 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 106.710

Low

120

Averages

144.46

High

162

Current: 106.710

Low

120

Averages

144.46

High

162

Truist

Buy

maintain

$141 -> $142

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$141 -> $142

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Ollie's Bargain Outlet to $142 from $141 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, Truist Card Data indicates that sales trends have continued to exceed prior expectations throughout most of Q4, the firm added.

Loop Capital

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$130 -> $135

2025-12-22

Reason

Loop Capital

Price Target

$130 -> $135

2025-12-22

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

Loop Capital upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet to Buy from Hold with a price target of $135, up from $130.

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OLLI Should I Buy

OLLI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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