Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock just surged +6.26% to $45.59 and is pushing into near-term resistance, making the risk/reward unattractive at this moment.
Upside appears capped near-term: multiple recent targets cluster around ~$45–$46 (Wells Fargo/BMO/Jefferies/Truist), and Wells explicitly called valuation “full.”
Longer-term setup is still constructive (strong Q4 print, dividend, hedge-fund buying, and some higher targets like Goldman $54 / UBS $51), but the current price level looks like a “chase” after earnings.
Resistance: R1 45.50 (price is slightly above it at 45.59) and R2 46.44 (next upside cap)
Support: S1 42.46 (major near-term support)
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the move may transition into consolidation rather than a clean trend continuation.
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): modest edge only (next day +0.58%, next week +1.31%, next month +2.5%), implying limited immediate follow-through after the spike.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment skew: Put/call ratios (OI 0.84, volume 0.24) lean bullish (more call activity vs puts, especially on volume).
Activity: Today’s options volume 1,095 is elevated (187.5% vs 30-day average), signaling heightened event-driven participation.
Volatility/pricing: 30D IV 22.56 vs historical vol 17.97 and IV percentile 82.87 → options are relatively expensive right now (market pricing in more movement after earnings).
Positioning: Total OI 19,739 with calls (10,732) > puts (9,007), supportive but not extreme.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Flows: Hedge funds are buying (reported +251.64% increase in buying amount last quarter).
and UBS Buy (PT $
point to upside tied to improving senior housing fundamentals and REIT backdrop.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases odds of a near-term fade.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2025/Q4):
Revenue: $319.217M (+14.28% YoY)
Net income: $164.835M (+45.43% YoY)
EPS: 0 (reported -100% YoY) — headline EPS is not tracking the net income trend here; for REITs, investors typically focus more on FFO/AFFO, and adjusted FFO was strong at $0.80/share.
Gross margin: 98.47% (slightly down YoY by 0.30%)
Overall read: operating/FFO narrative is strong this quarter, but the stock appears to have priced in a lot of that improvement after the recent run.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings have become more mixed and more valuation-sensitive after the run-up.
Latest changes:
Wells Fargo (2026-01-29) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; PT cut to $45 (from $48) citing full valuation and tenant/portfolio/yield risks.
BMO (2026-01-09) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform; PT $45; framed as limited upside/take profits.
Offsetting positives:
Goldman initiated Buy with $54 (2026-01-09).
UBS maintained Buy and raised PT to $51 (2026-01-08).
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: improving healthcare/senior housing fundamentals, better visibility, potential total return case, and supportive Q4 print.
Cons: valuation now looks “fair/full” to several analysts, operator/tenant headline risks, and less room for upside without new catalysts.
Wall Street analysts forecast OHI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OHI is 46.44 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast OHI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OHI is 46.44 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 45.570
Low
42
Averages
46.44
High
50
Current: 45.570
Low
42
Averages
46.44
High
50
UBS
Buy
maintain
$51 -> $52
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$51 -> $52
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Omega Healthcare to $52 from $51 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Wells Fargo
John Kilichowski
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$45
2026-01-29
Reason
Wells Fargo
John Kilichowski
Price Target
$45
2026-01-29
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst John Kilichowski downgraded Omega Healthcare to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $45 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis, Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for OHI