Not a good buy right now: price is in a clear bearish trend and sitting on/just below near-term support (8.11), so downside to the next support (7.65) is plausible before any durable bounce.
Event-driven uncertainty is high into earnings (2026-02-12 pre-market) and options are pricing elevated volatility (IV percentile ~93), which is unfavorable for an impatient “buy now” entry.
Volatility: 30D IV ~84.25 vs historical vol ~47.39; IV percentile ~93 → options are pricing a large move (consistent with upcoming earnings), which typically signals uncertainty more than confidence.
Activity: today’s option volume vs 30D average is elevated (~3.46x) → heightened sentiment/hedging into the event.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
plus proximity to support (~8.
can produce sharp technical bounces.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Downtrend is intact (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD), so dips can continue even if RSI is near oversold.
Earnings catalyst risk is immediate; options pricing (very high IV percentile) implies the market expects a sizable move and uncertainty is elevated.
Prior operational/headwind narrative persists (Nexplanon policy headwinds, respiratory challenges; plus mention of improper sales practices being identified/ceased) which can keep sentiment pressured.
If price fails to hold ~8.11, technical vacuum toward ~7.65 support increases near-term downside risk.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $1.602B, +1.26% YoY (low growth)
Net income: $160M, -55.43% YoY (sharp profitability deterioration)
EPS: $0.61, -55.80% YoY
Gross margin: 53.5%, -8.30% YoY
Takeaway: top-line is holding up slightly, but margins/profitability are trending worse, which is consistent with the stock’s weak price action.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Wall Street direction: price targets have been cut and ratings skew cautious.
Barclays (2025-12-08): Underweight, PT $7.50 (below current ~$8.09) → pro: sector sentiment improving; con: still sees OGN lagging.
Morgan Stanley (2025-11-11): Equal Weight, PT cut $10 → $9 → cites lowered revenue guidance and headwinds (Nexplanon policy, respiratory).
Influential/political trading check: no notable politician/congress activity provided in the last 90 days; hedge funds and insiders show neutral recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast OGN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OGN is 8.5 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast OGN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OGN is 8.5 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
4 Sell
Strong Sell
Current: 8.100
Low
5
Averages
8.5
High
12
Current: 8.100
Low
5
Averages
8.5
High
12
Barclays
Underweight
initiated
$7.50
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$7.50
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
initiated
Underweight
Reason
Barclays initiated coverage of Organon with an Underweight rating and $7.50 price target. The firm rolled out coverage on the specialty pharmaceuticals industry with a neutral view, saying investor sentiment is improving as companies shift focus to innovation, margin expansion and de-leveraging. The group's pricing headwinds are easing while debt leverage is coming down, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays sees "plenty of opportunity" as the sector "remains in a transition phase."
Morgan Stanley
Terence Flynn
Equal Weight
downgrade
$10 -> $9
2025-11-11
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Terence Flynn
Price Target
$10 -> $9
2025-11-11
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn lowered the firm's price target on Organon to $9 from $10 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company, which announced that it had identified and ceased the improper sales practices that resulted in recent personnel changes and concluded that improper practices were limited to Nexplanon, lowered revenue guidance to $6.2B-$6.25B from $6.275B-$6.375B, predominantly driven by U.S. policy headwinds for Nexplanon and challenges in the respiratory business, the analyst tells investors.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for OGN
