Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is extended (RSI overbought) and sitting near resistance after a run.
Fundamentals/trading flows are not supportive near-term (latest quarter showed a sharp earnings collapse; hedge funds have been selling aggressively).
Options positioning is bullish, but elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing a meaningful move into the 2/19 earnings event—risk/reward is unfavorable to chase here.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.744) and expanding, confirming upside momentum.
Overbought condition: RSI(6) at 82.11 signals an overbought/overextended tape—often followed by consolidation or pullback.
Levels: Pivot 125.08; resistance R1 131.71 (price ~132.74 is already above/at this zone), next resistance R2 135.81. Support S1 118.44.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the trend is less “clean” and could transition into range/consolidation.
Quant/candlestick analog: Similar-pattern stats imply limited edge ahead (next day +1.43% avg, next week +0.21%, next month -0.98%).
Sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI and volume) lean bullish (more call interest/flow than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV 41.58 vs historical vol 34.14, with IV percentile 88.84 → options are expensive; market is pricing elevated uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s volume (302) is far below 5D/10D average volumes (1025.6/691.6), suggesting no strong new options “rush” despite bullish skew.
Setup implication: Bullish options skew helps, but high IV + upcoming earnings increases the odds of a volatility crush and whipsaw price action.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-19 pre-market could re-rate the stock if results/guide beat expectations (Street EPS est ~1.33).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical near-term: RSI overbought and price near/above resistance (R1 131.71; next 135.81), making a pullback/consolidation likely.
Flow/positioning: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up ~1062.68% QoQ), a notable near-term headwind.
Macro/sector: Housing affordability, rates, policy/tariff risk cited by analysts; S&P 500 down ~1.26% today adds risk-off pressure.
Earnings event risk: Elevated IV into 2/19 earnings implies a larger-than-usual move is priced; unfavorable for chasing at stretched technicals.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $2.684B, down -2.86% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$494M (down -253.89% YoY) and EPS -5.92 (down -262.19% YoY) indicate a severe earnings deterioration in the quarter.
Margins: Gross margin 29.02%, down -5.99% YoY, showing pressure on pricing/costs.
Overall: Recent quarter trends are negative (declining revenue + sharply weaker earnings/margins), which makes paying up after a momentum run less attractive.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Analysts have been lowering price targets repeatedly from late 2025 into early 2026 (e.g., UBS 179→160; JPM 157→113; Deutsche 166→134; Wells 150→130; RBC 145→143; Citi 137→135; Evercore 121→117; Barclays 131→130).
Ratings: Despite PT cuts, several firms still carry positive ratings (Buy/Overweight/Outperform), while some are Neutral/In Line.
Wall Street pros: Quality building products exposure viewed as relatively attractive vs homebuilders; multiple Buy/Overweight stances remain.
Wall Street cons: Caution into early 2026 around affordability, mixed nonresidential demand, destocking/weak demand commentary post-Q3, and policy/rate/tariff risks—reflected in broad PT reductions.
Wall Street analysts forecast OC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OC is 135.42 USD with a low forecast of 113 USD and a high forecast of 163 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast OC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OC is 135.42 USD with a low forecast of 113 USD and a high forecast of 163 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 132.230
Low
113
Averages
135.42
High
163
Current: 132.230
Low
113
Averages
135.42
High
163
RBC Capital
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$145 -> $143
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$145 -> $143
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Owens Corning to $143 from $145 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Goldman remains cautious into early 2026, with housing affordability still challenging and R&R potentially inflecting later in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonresidential markets are mixed, key risks include policy changes, rates, and tariffs, and the sector is expected to remain volatile, with homebuilders the most cautious, distribution favored, and building products OEMs offering relatively attractive valuations.
RBC Capital
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$145 -> $143
2026-01-09
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$145 -> $143
2026-01-09
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Owens Corning to $143 from $145 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. RBC Capital remains cautious into early 2026, with housing affordability still challenging and R&R potentially inflecting later in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonresidential markets are mixed, key risks include policy changes, rates, and tariffs, and the sector is expected to remain volatile, with homebuilders the most cautious, distribution favored, and building products OEMs offering relatively attractive valuations.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for OC
