Should I Buy OBDC? OBDC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

11.460

1 Day change

5.04%

52 Week Range

15.290

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is in a clear downtrend and options flow is heavily defensive/bearish.
Oversold conditions (very low RSI) increase odds of a short-term bounce, but momentum is still worsening (MACD histogram expanding negative).
Best play from here is to hold/wait for either (1) a momentum reversal back above the pivot (~11.71) or (2) a clean stabilization after the 2026-02-18 earnings catalyst, rather than buying into a falling trend.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD histogram (-0.16) is below zero and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is still building.
RSI: RSI_6 = 14.76 (deeply oversold). This often precedes a reflex rally, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Current ~10.915 is just below S1 (10.976) and above S2 (10.522). Immediate resistance is the pivot (11.709), then R1 (12.442). A reclaim of 10.976 and especially 11.709 would be the first technical improvement.
Pattern-based stats (similar candlesticks): skewed to small near-term upside (next day +0.73%, next week +0.18%) but with higher 1-month upside probability (+5.41%), consistent with “oversold bounce” potential rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bearish/defensive. Put volume is extremely elevated vs calls (put/call volume ratio 19.82), suggesting traders are aggressively hedging or positioning for further downside.
Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 1.33 also leans bearish/cautious (more puts outstanding than calls).
Volatility: IV_30d 45.4 vs historical vol 25.53, with IV percentile 98.41 (very high). Market is pricing a large move (often around earnings/sector stress), and fear premium is elevated.
Activity: Today’s volume is ~90.86% of 30-day average (not a blowout), but today’s open interest is elevated vs average (120.42%), implying meaningful positioning is already on.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Heavy insider buying: insider buying amount up ~1372% over the last month, a notable confidence signal.
- Potential oversold mean reversion: RSI is extremely oversold, increasing probability of a short-term bounce if selling pressure eases.
- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-18 after hours, QDEC 2025): could reset narrative if credit quality/dividend coverage hold up and guidance reassures.
- Analyst stance still broadly constructive: despite target cuts, multiple firms maintain Buy/Outperform ratings (supportive longer-term view).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Strongly bearish technical trend: bearish MA stack and worsening MACD suggest downside momentum remains dominant.
- Options market is signaling stress: exceptionally high put-volume skew and very high IV percentile indicate traders are paying up for protection.
- Sector/news backdrop: private credit concerns are in focus (peer commentary like Ares earnings highlighting challenges), which can pressure BDC valuations.
- Earnings event risk (2026-02-18): with elevated IV, market expects turbulence; disappointing dividend/NII/credit marks could extend the drawdown.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 392.222M, +9.05% YoY (top-line growth remains positive).
Profitability: Net income 128.181M, -5.30% YoY (down).
EPS: 0.25, -28.57% YoY (notable decline, consistent with tougher spread/rate/fee environment and/or higher costs/credit impacts).
Overall read: growth in revenue but weakening earnings power vs last year—supports why targets/guidance expectations have been trimmed.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: predominantly price target cuts across the board (BofA 15.50→13.50; Truist 17→16; Keefe Bruyette 14.50→13.50; Wells Fargo 13→12; Citizens JMP 17→15), reflecting reduced near-term upside expectations and a tougher BDC/private credit setup.
Ratings: still mixed-to-positive—Buy/Outperform maintained by BofA/Truist/Citizens JMP, while Keefe Bruyette is Market Perform and Wells Fargo is Equal Weight.
Wall Street pros view: sees value and longer-term attractiveness, with some viewing corporate actions/positioning favorably.
Wall Street cons view: concerns around lower-rate assumptions, net interest income pressure, private credit sentiment, and deal/industry dynamics limiting upside.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast OBDC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OBDC is 14.19 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 15.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 10.910

Low

Averages

14.19

High

15.5

Current: 10.910

Low

Averages

14.19

High

15.5

BofA

Buy

downgrade

AI Analysis

2025-11-20

Reason

BofA

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-11-20

downgrade

Buy

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Blue Owl Capital to $13.50 from $15.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the termination of its proposed merger with an affiliated fund due to current market conditions. BofA views the announcement favorably since the potential near-term accretion of the transaction was minimal, according to the firm. BofA added that the timing of the proposed merger was not ideal as investor concerns about lower rates and private credit have caused business development companies to underperform, the firm told investors in a research note.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$17 -> $16

2025-11-11

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$17 -> $16

2025-11-11

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist lowered the firm's price target on Blue Owl Capital to $16 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on BDCs. The firm is updating its model to reflect the company's Q3 results and revised guidance while also cutting its FY25 net interest income per share view by 6c to $1.52 to reflect lower assumed interest and fee income, mitigated by lower incentive fee expense, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for OBDC

Unlock Now

OBDC Should I Buy

OBDC Should I Buy

Should You Buy Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch