Should I Buy NXPI? NXPI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

224.320

1 Day change

0.99%

52 Week Range

255.450

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: short-term technicals are weak (bearish momentum + price below pivot), and management’s near-term guide is slightly soft versus expectations.
Upside exists (earnings beat, improving cycle narrative, Street still mostly Buy/Overweight), but the current setup favors waiting for confirmation rather than chasing an entry.
Insider activity is a notable red flag (selling up sharply), and Congress trading is balanced (no strong signal).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -2.038 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: 37.8 (RSI_6) → leaning toward oversold but not showing a clear reversal signal yet.
Moving Averages: Converging → suggests consolidation, but momentum indicators currently tilt bearish.
Levels: Pivot 226.40 overhead (price 221.48 is below it). Key support S1 212.68 (next downside area); resistance R1 240.12 (recovery hurdle).
Pattern-based forward tilt (provided): modestly negative bias over the next day/month, small positive over the next week.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put/call 0.84 and volume put/call 0.18 → options flow/positioning skews bullish-to-neutral (more call activity than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV 42.95 vs HV 41.76 → IV slightly rich; IV percentile 67.73 indicates volatility is relatively elevated versus its recent distribution.
Activity: Today’s option volume 1,396 vs 30D average (today vs avg shown 35.9) → options volume looks subdued, so sentiment signal is not extremely strong.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings print beat: Q4 EPS $3.35 topped expectations; revenue $3.34B beat and grew ~7.4% YoY.
- Several analysts still emphasize a cycle improvement backdrop and potential growth acceleration (some expect improvement into Q2).
- Management confidence in longer-term model targets (notably referenced by JPMorgan) can support the multiple if demand improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term outlook: Q1 adjusted EPS guide $2.77–$3.17 and revenue $3.05–$3.25B read slightly cautious, reinforcing uncertainty in Auto/Industrial.
- End-market headwind: multiple analysts cite soft auto and limited near-term cyclical torque.
- Channel/inventory note: reported channel inventory up (e.g., Bernstein cited ~10 weeks)—can pressure near-term orders.
- Insider selling: insiders are net selling, with selling amount up ~423% over the last month.
- Broad tape: market down (S&P 500 -1.08%) adds near-term pressure to semis.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $3.335B, +7.20% YoY → top-line growth remains positive.
Profitability: Net income $455M, -8.08% YoY; EPS 1.79, -7.25% YoY → earnings growth lagged revenue (margin/expense pressure).
Gross margin: 55.71%, down 0.11% YoY → essentially flat/slightly lower, not yet showing strong operating leverage.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings mostly Buy/Overweight/Outperform maintained, but price targets were broadly cut right after earnings (Mizuho, TD Cowen, Citi, Truist, BofA all lowered PTs; JPMorgan slightly raised PT; Bernstein raised PT but stays Market Perform).
Wall Street “Pros” view: earnings beat, improving cycle narrative, and confidence in longer-term model targets.
Wall Street “Cons” view: auto/industrial softness, need to “prove” the recovery torque, and cautious near-term guide; multiple PT cuts reflect tempered near-term upside expectations.

20 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NXPI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NXPI is 253.79 USD with a low forecast of 210 USD and a high forecast of 289 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 222.130

Low

210

Averages

253.79

High

289

Current: 222.130

Low

210

Averages

253.79

High

289

Mizuho

Outperform -> NULL

downgrade

$285 -> $255

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$285 -> $255

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Outperform -> NULL

Reason

Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on NXP Semiconductors to $255 from $285 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company is seeing improving trends but the soft auto sector remains a headwind, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

TD Cowen

Buy

downgrade

$285 -> $250

2026-02-04

New

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$285 -> $250

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on NXP Semiconductors to $250 from $285 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they posted a beat and raise results and noted the cycle is improving but its target model needs to be proven. Both the results and outlook point to strong earnings growth in 2026 thoug management didn't guide beyond the March quarter.

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NXPI Should I Buy

NXPI Should I Buy

Should You Buy NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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