Should I Buy NX? NX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Quanex Building Products Corp (NX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

21.290

1 Day change

4.57%

52 Week Range

23.720

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is technically overbought (RSI_6 ~87) and is trading above the first resistance (R1 20.137) with limited upside to the next level (R2 20.711).
No Intellectia buy signals today (AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both inactive), so there’s no strong timing edge supporting an immediate chase.
Options positioning is mixed-to-cautious (OI put/call > 1), and implied volatility is elevated versus realized volatility, suggesting uncertainty/hedging.
With no fresh news catalysts and the last quarter showing sharp YoY earnings decline, the risk/reward favors waiting rather than buying at the current level.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive and expanding (0.0578), supporting continued upward momentum.
Overbought condition: RSI_6 at 87.233 signals a stretched move where near-term pullbacks are common.
Levels: Pivot 19.209; Support S1 18.281; Resistance R1 20.137 (already reclaimed) and R2 20.711 (nearby cap). With price ~20.43, upside to R2 is limited versus downside back toward pivot.
Pattern-based outlook (provided): ~40% chance of +0.46% next day, +1.13% next week, +2% next month—modest expected gains, not compelling versus overbought risk.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open interest put/call ratio at 1.32 suggests relatively heavier put positioning (more cautious/hedged stance).
Flow today is tiny (total option volume 7 contracts), so volume-based signals are weak despite put/call volume ratio 0.4.
Volatility: IV 30d ~59.3 vs historical volatility ~33.02 indicates options are pricing elevated uncertainty; IV percentile ~54.98 is mid-high.
Near-term: IV has been high recently (5d avg ~72.8; 10d avg ~75.3) but current is lower than those averages—cooling, yet still elevated versus realized.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish moving-average stack; positive MACD).
- Gross margin improved materially (22.85%, +25.34% YoY), indicating better pricing/mix/cost control.
- Analyst stance remains constructive overall (Benchmark keeps Buy; PT still well above current price at $28).
- No significant negative trading trend flagged from hedge funds/insiders (both neutral).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum is stretched: RSI_6 ~87 (overbought), increasing the odds of a near-term pullback.
- Earnings power deteriorated sharply YoY in the latest quarter (net income and EPS down >200% YoY), which can limit multiple expansion.
- Options positioning shows more puts outstanding than calls (OI put/call 1.32), consistent with cautious sentiment/hedging.
- No recent news/catalysts to justify chasing price at resistance.
- Macro tape is risk-off today (S&P 500 down ~1.07%), which can pressure small/mid-cap industrial names.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: 489,846,000 (down -0.47% YoY) — essentially flat to slightly down.
Profitability: Net income 19,571,000 (down -240.63% YoY) and EPS 0.43 (down -243.33% YoY) — substantial earnings decline.
Margin: Gross margin 22.85% (up +25.34% YoY) — a bright spot, but not enough to offset the earnings drop in this snapshot.
Overall read: operational margin improved, but bottom-line trend is currently negative, making the fundamental backdrop less supportive for an aggressive buy at an overbought technical level.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent: 2025-12-15 Benchmark reiterated Buy but lowered price target to $28 from $30.
Rationale from analyst: FY26 guidance pushed out; management expects a flattish YoY year with a tougher first half; analyst cut FY26/FY27 EPS estimates due to uncertain outlook.
Wall Street pros view (pros/cons):
- Pros: Still rated Buy; PT implies meaningful upside from ~20.4.
- Cons: Target cut and reduced EPS estimates signal weakening confidence in near-term fundamentals; outlook described as uncertain.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NX is 28 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 28 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 20.360

Low

Averages

High

Current: 20.360

Low

Averages

High

Benchmark

analyst

Buy

maintain

$30 -> $28

AI Analysis

2025-12-15

Reason