Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is breaking down near support with bearish momentum (negative, expanding MACD) and no proprietary “strong buy” signals today.
Near-term setup is more consistent with a falling-knife/oversold bounce attempt than a clean trend reversal; risk of further downside remains if $7.58 support fails.
Options positioning is call-skewed (bullish tilt) but IV is extremely elevated, implying the market is pricing large moves and uncertainty rather than stable upside.
News flow is mixed: Pfizer licensing deal is a positive validation/cash catalyst, but clinical hold/setbacks and shifting vaccine recommendations keep the fundamental outlook cloudy.
Trend/momentum: Bearish short-term momentum; MACD histogram -0.175 and negatively expanding suggests downside pressure is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~29.9 is borderline oversold; this can enable a short bounce, but it is not a confirmation of reversal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs signal indecision/transition, but current momentum favors bears.
Key levels: Price $7.93 is below S1 ($8.13) and sitting just above S2 ($7.58). A decisive break below ~$7.58 would be a technical negative; reclaiming ~$8.13 then pivot ~$9.01 would be needed to improve the near-term structure.
Pattern-based projection (provided): ~40% chance of -0.16% next day; +3.03% next week; +5.6% next month—suggests modest rebound odds, but not high-conviction immediate upside.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI and volume) are low, indicating call interest dominates (bullish/speculative tilt).
Volatility: 30D IV ~145% vs historical vol ~85% with IV percentile ~96.8 (very elevated). Market is pricing large moves/uncertainty; this often coincides with event-risk or unstable price action.
Activity: Today’s option volume is ~18x the 30-day average, signaling heightened attention/speculation.
Interpretation: Sentiment skew is bullish via calls, but the extremely high IV suggests the “market expects a big move,” not necessarily a directional edge to the upside.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Pfizer licensing agreement (Matrix-M) includes $30M upfront and potential milestones—supports liquidity and validates platform interest.
Next earnings on 2026-03-06 (pre-market) can act as a catalyst if guidance/revenue visibility improves.
Financial quality signals improved YoY: gross margin up sharply and losses narrowing (even though still negative).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with bearish MACD.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $70.45M, down -16.64% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income improved to -$202.38M (loss narrowed) up 66.84% YoY; EPS improved to -1.25 (up 64.47% YoY), but still meaningfully negative.
Gross margin: 69.49%, up 145.81% YoY (strong improvement in margin profile).
Takeaway: Cost/margin progress is real, but revenue is shrinking—growth visibility remains the key gap.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Overall Street tone skews cautious/negative: JPMorgan maintains Underweight (PT cut to $6); BofA maintains Underperform (PT raised to $7) even after Pfizer licensing deal.
Bull case representation exists but is less common: B. Riley reiterates Buy with PT $16, citing diversified revenue streams and early-stage pipeline optionality.
Recent trend: price targets were adjusted (some up on Pfizer deal, some down on outlook), but most ratings remain bearish/defensive—pros like platform validation and diversification vs cons like limited commercial upside and lack of near-term pipeline catalysts.
Influence/flow checks: No recent Congress trading data provided; insiders/hedge funds shown as Neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast NVAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVAX is 10.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NVAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVAX is 10.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 7.870
Low
6
Averages
10.5
High
18
Current: 7.870
Low
6
Averages
10.5
High
18
BofA
Underperform
maintain
$6 -> $7
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$6 -> $7
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
maintain
Underperform
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Novavax (NVAX) to $7 from $6 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after the company announced a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer (PFE) for use of Matrix-M adjuvant in vaccine products in up to two infectious disease fields. While the firm thinks the agreement is a positive sign for interest in the technology and the upfront cash is a plus, it sees the cadence of development as an outstanding question and reiterates an Underperform rating as it awaits greater clarity on the expected development timing for assets from licensing agreements, the analyst tells investors.
JPMorgan
Underweight
downgrade
$7 -> $6
2025-11-18
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$7 -> $6
2025-11-18
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Novavax to $6 from $7 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm sees limited commercial upside for the company with no material pipeline catalysts next year.
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