Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price ($187.26) is pressing near resistance (R1 ~$188.86) and above/around most fresh Wall St targets ($180–$183 from recent downgrades).
Trend is still bullish (moving averages stacked up), but momentum is cooling (MACD histogram positive but contracting) and short-term odds skew negative (pattern stats suggest -4.4% next week).
Options tape is mixed-to-bearish near-term (put-heavy volume), while positioning (OI) is more constructive.
Fund flows conflict: hedge funds buying strongly, but insider selling is elevated—reducing the attractiveness of chasing at current levels.
Current setup: With price near R1 and down on the day (and weaker pre-market), risk/reward favors waiting for either a pullback toward ~179 or a clean breakout above ~189.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.71 = more call OI than puts (generally constructive).
Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio 1.47 = puts leading calls (more defensive/hedging tone near-term).
Activity: Today’s volume 4,187 (~111.68% of 30-day average) = sentiment read is more meaningful than a quiet day.
Volatility: 30d IV 33.91 vs historical vol 29.36 (options pricing in moderately elevated moves); IV percentile ~35 and IV rank ~7.5 suggest IV is not extreme versus the past year.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Industry backdrop: Expectations that steel tariffs remain firm and imports decline can support domestic pricing and market share gains (noted by multiple analysts).
Hedge fund trend: "Hedge Funds are Buying" with buying amount up ~1257% QoQ (strong institutional accumulation signal).
Fundamentals (latest quarter): 2025/Q4 showed solid YoY growth in revenue, earnings, and margins (supports the broader uptrend).
Potential medium-term narrative: Some analysts highlight a future FCF inflection as large capex cycle winds down (watch item for later, not immediate-day catalyst).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
sit below the current price ($187.26).
suggests traders are hedging or leaning cautious into the near term.
Recent trend: Price targets were broadly raised into late-2025 (Jefferies to $190, JPMorgan to $200, BofA to $180), but in Jan-2026 two firms downgraded (UBS to Neutral, Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight) as the stock rallied and approached "full" valuation.
Latest notable targets vs current price ($187.26): UBS $183 (below), Morgan Stanley $180 (below), Wells Fargo $176 (below) — near-term upside case is harder to justify at today’s price.
Wall St pros: Supportive steel pricing backdrop (tariffs/import decline), potential share gains, improving longer-term FCF once capex moderates.
Wall St cons: Limited valuation headroom after a strong run, near-term softness/seasonality and contract lag effects, and a relatively muted demand outlook in some 2026 views.
Wall Street analysts forecast NUE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NUE is 179 USD with a low forecast of 168 USD and a high forecast of 200 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NUE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NUE is 179 USD with a low forecast of 168 USD and a high forecast of 200 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 186.500
Low
168
Averages
179
High
200
Current: 186.500
Low
168
Averages
179
High
200
UBS
Andrew Jones
Buy
to
Neutral
downgrade
$168 -> $183
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
Reason
UBS
Andrew Jones
Price Target
$168 -> $183
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
downgrade
Buy
to
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Andrew Jones downgraded Nucor to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $183, up from $168.
UBS
Andrew Jones
Buy
to
Neutral
downgrade
$168 -> $183
2026-01-28
Reason
UBS
Andrew Jones
Price Target
$168 -> $183
2026-01-28
downgrade
Buy
to
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Andrew Jones downgraded Nucor to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $183, up from $168. The downgrade is based on "full" valuation and pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The shares are up 32% since mid-October, despite a soft Q4, amid strong price moves in flat and longs and a $130/st in announced plate increases, the firm adds.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NUE
