Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the chart is still in a defined downtrend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is below the key pivot (39.808).
Near-term risk/reward is mixed: RSI(6)=34.64 is getting close to oversold and support is nearby (S1=36.607), but momentum remains bearish (MACD histogram -0.372).
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but implied volatility is extremely elevated (IV percentile ~95%), making options expensive and signaling uncertainty.
Sentiment headwinds: insiders are selling heavily (+575.77% increase in selling over the last month) and there is negative legal headline risk.
Practical decision: do not buy now; only turns attractive for a fast entry if it reclaims ~39.81 and holds, or if it flushes to the 36.6–34.6 support zone and stabilizes.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying sellers still control the intermediate trend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.372 (below zero) though “negatively contracting” suggests downside momentum may be slowing, not reversing yet.
RSI: RSI_6 at 34.64 (near oversold), consistent with a possible short-term bounce attempt, but not a confirmed reversal signal.
Key levels:
Pivot: 39.808 (needs reclaim to improve short-term bias)
Resistance: 43.009 (R1), 44.987 (R2)
Support: 36.607 (S1), 34.629 (S2)
Pattern-based forward odds (similar candlesticks): 40% chance of -0.66% next day, -0.82% next week, -1.68% next month → mild bearish bias persists.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/skew: Put/call ratios are extremely low (OI 0.27; volume 0.02) → call-heavy flow and bullish/short-covering bias.
Activity: Today’s option volume 10,984 vs 30D average is very elevated (~505.94%), signaling heightened attention.
Volatility: 30D IV 62.19 vs historical volatility 51.56; IV percentile 95.22 → options are priced for large moves and uncertainty.
Takeaway: sentiment via flow is bullish, but pricing (very high IV) implies the market expects turbulence; this does not align well with an impatient “buy-now” stock entry without a technical reversal.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Wall Street largely maintains constructive ratings (Buy/Overweight/Outperform) despite reduced targets, implying belief in medium-term thesis.
could reset sentiment if execution/guide improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical downtrend remains intact; price is below pivot and bearish MA stack suggests rallies may be sold.
Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~575.77% over the last month), a notable sentiment negative.
News sentiment: Pomerantz LLP investigation into potential securities fraud after a disappointing FY2026 Q1 / revenue projection downgrade adds headline risk.
Analysts repeatedly cited revenue-recognition/deal-timing issues and lowered FY26 revenue outlook; near-term “range-bound” expectations are common.
Market tape: S&P 500 down ~1.1% today (risk-off pressure on high-beta software names).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: FY2026 Q1.
Revenue: 670.576M, up 13.47% YoY (continued top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income 62.096M, up 107.50% YoY.
Overall: fundamentals show strong growth and margin expansion, but the stock’s near-term trading is being dominated by guidance/timing uncertainty and sentiment/technicals.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: broad wave of price target cuts after the “noisy/messy” FY2026 Q1 and FY26 revenue guidance reduction; most firms maintained positive ratings (Buy/Overweight/Outperform).
Examples of target cuts while keeping bullish stance:
RBC: PT to 65 (from 74), Outperform.
Goldman: PT to 75 (from 95), Buy.
Morgan Stanley: PT to 82 (from 90), Overweight.
JPMorgan/Needham/Barclays/KeyBanc/BofA: PTs reduced, ratings generally remain Overweight/Buy.
More cautious voices:
Wells Fargo: Equal Weight with PT 57; expects muted sentiment.
Northland: Market Perform with PT 53; points to RPO quality/guide disappointment.
Wall Street pros vs cons (summary):
Pros: demand/bookings described as robust; timing/recognition issues seen as non-competitive; strong margins and AI/enterprise tailwind potential.
Cons: reduced revenue visibility and structurally longer booking-to-revenue conversion keeps the stock range-bound; guidance disappointment continues to cap upside.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast NTNX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTNX is 70.42 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NTNX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTNX is 70.42 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 38.390
Low
53
Averages
70.42
High
90
Current: 38.390
Low
53
Averages
70.42
High
90
RBC Capital
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$74 -> $65
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$74 -> $65
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Nutanix to $65 from $74 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. 2026 is likely to be a year when AI tailwinds become more evident for companies well positioned for enterprise AI adoption, while less prepared peers may remain pressured by the "AI is the death of software" narrative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Enterprise spending appears to be stabilizing and improving in select areas, with GenAI driving innovation even as management teams remain conservative in early 2026 guidance, the firm says.
Goldman Sachs
Buy
downgrade
$95 -> $75
2025-11-28
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$95 -> $75
2025-11-28
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Nutanix to $75 from $95 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the company's "noisy" fiscal Q1 report is more about deal timing than underlying demand. While the stock will likely remain range-bound in the near-term, with expectations now reset, Nutanix presents an attractive risk/reward, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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