Should I Buy NTGR? NTGR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy NETGEAR Inc (NTGR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

20.500

1 Day change

3.17%

52 Week Range

36.860

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is breaking below near-term support while momentum is still worsening.
The stock is deeply oversold (RSI-6 ~11.6), so a short-term bounce is possible, but the broader trend remains bearish and the next support (~18.78) is close.
Options positioning (put-leaning) and elevated implied volatility suggest risk sentiment is still cautious, not “capitulation-to-reversal” confirmed.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 (downtrend intact).
MACD: Histogram -0.0858 and negatively expanding → downside momentum still building, not stabilizing yet.
RSI: RSI_6 = 11.6 (extremely oversold) → bounce risk is real, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger without momentum improvement.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 20.729 (overhead pivot)
- Resistance: 21.937 (R1) then 22.684 (R2)
- Support: 19.521 (S1) has effectively been lost with price at 19.38; next support 18.775 (S2).
Tactical read: This is a falling-knife setup until price reclaims 19.52–20.73 and MACD stops expanding negatively.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-leaning (OI PCR 1.26, volume PCR 1.12) → market participants are more hedged/bearish than bullish.
Volatility: 30D IV 68.66 vs historical vol 24.23 → options are pricing large moves; sentiment is cautious and protection-demand is elevated.
Activity: Today’s open interest 10,291 and OI vs 30D avg 120.66% suggests above-average positioning; volume today (286) is below recent 5D/10D averages (~1,137/1,007), implying no major “panic reversal” volume signal today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings surprise (Q4): non-GAAP EPS $0.26 beat expectations by $0.21, with revenue $182.5M above forecasts.
- FY2025 revenue growth: first annual revenue increase since 2020, up >$25M to $699.6M.
- Profitability quality signal: Gross margin improved to 40.36% (+23.99% YoY), a constructive operational trend if sustained.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action is bearish: broke below near-term support (around 19.52) and momentum is still deteriorating (MACD expanding negative).
- Profitability still weak on GAAP: latest quarter shows net income -$0.684M and EPS -0.02, both sharply worse YoY.
- Options sentiment leans defensive: put-call ratios > 1 and high IV suggest continued uncertainty and demand for protection.
- No supportive smart-money trend flags: hedge funds and insiders shown as neutral with no notable recent trend in the provided data.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $182.468M, +0.03% YoY (essentially flat, but not shrinking).
Net income: -$0.684M, -92.30% YoY (meaningfully worse).
EPS: -0.02, -93.55% YoY (worse profitability on this measure).
Gross margin: 40.36%, +23.99% YoY (clear improvement; a key positive trend to watch for follow-through).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so no confirmed recent trend in Wall Street upgrades/downgrades or target revisions can be stated.
Wall Street-style bull case (pros): FY revenue returned to growth; Q4 results beat expectations; gross margin expansion can drive earnings leverage.
Bear case (cons): stock is in a confirmed downtrend; GAAP profitability metrics are still weak; options market is defensively positioned (put-lean).

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NTGR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTGR is 40 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 19.870

Low

Averages

High

Current: 19.870

Low

Averages

High

Stifel

Buy

downgrade

$40 -> $36

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$40 -> $36

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Netgear to $36 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a "nice" Q4 beat to close out 2025, though the long-term turnaround story remains the focus going forward, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Stifel

Buy

maintain

$35 -> $40

2025-10-17

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$35 -> $40

2025-10-17

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel raised the firm's price target on Netgear to $40 from $35 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview for the analog, connectivity and processors group.

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NTGR Should I Buy

NTGR Should I Buy

Should You Buy NETGEAR Inc (NTGR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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