Buy now as an oversold rebound setup: RSI(6) ~13 is extremely oversold while price is sitting at/just below the first support zone (S1 ~121.66).
Fundamentals and positioning support buying weakness: latest quarter showed solid YoY growth (revenue +8.28%, net income +31.87%), and hedge funds are increasing buying (+133% QoQ).
Near-term catalyst window: earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-11 pre-market can re-rate the stock quickly; analysts’ targets remain well above the current price despite “mixed” Q3 commentary.
Caveat to the setup (still a buy): the primary trend is bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5, MACD histogram negative and worsening), so the trade thesis is a rebound from capitulation levels rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), indicating the broader downtrend is intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -1.398 and negatively expanding signals downside momentum still active.
Oversold: RSI(6) at 13.724 suggests capitulation/oversold conditions, often followed by a mean-reversion bounce.
Levels: Pivot 128.07 (key reclaim level). Immediate support: S1 121.66 (price ~120.72 is just below), then S2 117.7. Upside resistance: R1 134.48 then R2 138.44.
Practical read: This is a buy-the-dip setup near support; a sustained move back above ~128 (pivot) would strengthen the reversal case.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/positioning: Open interest put/call ~0.99 is essentially neutral, but the volume put/call ~1.51 shows put-heavy flow today (more short-term caution/hedging).
Activity: Today’s option volume (1,932) is elevated vs 30-day average (~260% of avg), indicating heightened attention.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~49.3 vs historical vol ~38.15 implies options are pricing elevated near-term moves; IV percentile ~89.6 suggests “rich” implied volatility versus the past year.
Interpretation: Options tape leans defensive short-term (put-heavy volume), but positioning is not extremely bearish (OI balanced); this often aligns with a potential oversold bounce if selling pressure exhausts.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
can drive a sharp repricing if results/guide are solid.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical trend is still bearish: MACD weakening and bearish MA stack implies rebounds can fail until the trend turns.
Options flow today is defensive: put volume dominates (put/call volume 1.51), suggesting traders are still leaning cautious into the near term.
No supportive news flow in the past week (no fresh positive catalyst headlines to interrupt the downtrend before earnings).
Earnings risk is binary: with the stock already in a downtrend, a weak report/guide could extend the move toward S2 (~117.7).
Recent street actions (2025-11-20 to 2025-11-21) show targets mostly raised or slightly trimmed but with generally constructive stance.
Benchmark: Raised PT to $158 from $145, reiterated Buy; sees sustainable growth potential and positive international signals.
Barclays: Raised PT to $135 from $120, maintained Equal Weight; cites diversified game portfolio reducing volatility.
Bernstein: Lowered PT slightly to $155 from $160 but kept Outperform; notes Q3 P&L miss, yet believes risk-reward has improved and key games are nearing a bottom.
Wall Street pros/cons summary:
Pros: diversified portfolio, improving risk-reward, strong dev track record, targets far above current price.
Cons: recent quarter had mixed elements/P&L shortfall vs expectations, and near-term execution/earnings delivery is the key swing factor.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider trend is neutral with no significant activity in the last month.
Wall Street analysts forecast NTES stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTES is 157.33 USD with a low forecast of 135 USD and a high forecast of 166 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NTES stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NTES is 157.33 USD with a low forecast of 135 USD and a high forecast of 166 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 120.300
Low
135
Averages
157.33
High
166
Current: 120.300
Low
135
Averages
157.33
High
166
Benchmark
Buy
maintain
$145 -> $158
AI Analysis
2025-11-21
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$145 -> $158
AI Analysis
2025-11-21
maintain
Buy
Reason
Benchmark raised the firm's price target on NetEase to $158 from $145 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company delivered "mixed" Q3 results. The firm believes NetEase's development capabilities, proven track record, and early positive signals from international markets "give it the potential to deliver sustainable growth" as it rolls forward its valuation to be based on FY26 estimates.
Barclays
Equal Weight
maintain
$120 -> $135
2025-11-21
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$120 -> $135
2025-11-21
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on NetEase to $135 from $120 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's Q3 results again confirm again that its diverse game portfolio has made its revenue streams far less volatile, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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