If you must act immediately (impatient scenario), the higher-probability move is to stay out until price stabilizes back above key levels; otherwise downside to the next support remains more likely than a clean reversal.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: Bearish. MACD histogram is negative (-0.18) and expanding lower, indicating downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~25.65 suggests oversold/washed-out conditions, but oversold can persist in downtrends—this is not a standalone buy signal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs typically imply indecision/transition, but with today’s sharp drop the bias remains to the downside.
Key levels: Price ~$4.115 is below S1 (4.219), signaling support failure; next support is S2 (3.801). Upside resistance starts at pivot 4.895, then R1 5.571.
Near-term pattern odds (similar candlesticks): modest bounce odds over 1W/1M (+1.62% / +1.39%) but next-day skew slightly negative—consistent with “dead-cat bounce risk” rather than a confirmed turn.
Activity: Today’s option volume is very elevated (today vs 30D avg ~268%), indicating an event-driven or momentum-driven options crowd.
Volatility: IV30 ~113% vs HV ~95% (options pricing in large moves). IV percentile ~37.85 and IV rank ~12.86 indicate IV is not at extremes versus its own history, but absolute IV remains high.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning bullish, but this can be “dip-buying” behavior that doesn’t override the bearish price trend—especially when spot is breaking support.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
News/event catalyst: Bridge Energy secured a 14-year LTESA for a 100MW/870MWh BESS project in NSW, supported by A$310M investment from Energy Vault—supports long-duration revenue visibility and project credibility.
Operational: Company previously reiterated 2025 revenue guidance and highlighted potential for positive cash generation (per analyst note), which can improve sentiment if delivered.
Profitability: Net income still negative at -26.817M (only +0.84% YoY improvement), showing losses persist.
EPS: -0.16, down -11.11% YoY (per-share losses widened).
Margins: Gross margin 26.15%, up +35.14% YoY (a constructive sign, but not yet translating into earnings profitability).
Bottom line: Growth is real, but earnings/cash durability remains a question—important given the stock’s high volatility.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: 2025-11-11 Goldman Sachs raised price target to $2 from $1.50 but kept a Sell rating.
Rationale summary: Results were roughly in line; management reiterated 2025 revenue guidance; cash balance guidance achieved and expectations for another quarter of positive cash generation tied to monetization of ~$40M ITCs.
Wall Street pros view: Improving revenue visibility, potential cash-generation quarters, and margin improvement.
Wall Street cons view: Execution risk and valuation/price disconnect (Sell rating with PT far below current), plus the market is not awarding a premium until profitability/cash flow consistency is proven.
Wall Street analysts forecast NRGV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRGV is 3.73 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 5.19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NRGV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRGV is 3.73 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 5.19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.030
Low
2
Averages
3.73
High
5.19
Current: 4.030
Low
2
Averages
3.73
High
5.19
Goldman Sachs
Sell
maintain
$2
AI Analysis
2025-11-11
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$2
AI Analysis
2025-11-11
maintain
Sell
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Energy Vault to $2 from $1.50 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The company's revenue and adjusted EBITDA were relatively in line with expectations while the management reiterated its 2025 revenue guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Energy Vault has also achieved its cash balance guidance in Q3 and expects another quarter of positive cash generation in Q4, driven by the monetization of $40M in Investment Tax Credits, the firm added.
Roth MKM
Justin Clare
Strong Buy
Maintains
$2.5 → $1.5
2025-03-20
Reason
Roth MKM
Justin Clare
Price Target
$2.5 → $1.5
2025-03-20
Maintains
Strong Buy
Reason
Roth MKM analyst Justin Clare lowered the firm's price target on Energy Vault to $1.50 from $2.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 miss and cut 2025 guidance to reflect the 40% decline in battery pricing and acceleration of the own and operate model, but while the price decline and competitive environment create risks, Energy Vault has meaningfully increased its backlog, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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