Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price action and momentum are bearish and the stock is still digesting post-deal guidance.
Near-term setup is mixed-to-negative: technical trend is down, insider selling is elevated, and the pattern-based forecast skews negative over 1W–1M.
If forced to act today, this is closer to a tactical “wait/hold” than a “buy now”; a cleaner buy signal would be a reclaim of the pivot (~149.5) and improving momentum.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates a defined downtrend.
MACD: Histogram -0.364 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI (6): 32.1 → near oversold/weak momentum; can support a short-term bounce, but not a confirmed reversal.
Levels: Current 144.22 is below Pivot 149.54 and sitting just above S1 143.05 (near-term support). A break below S1 increases risk toward S2 139.03; upside resistance at 149.54 then 156.04.
Tape/Context: Pre-market -1.87% vs S&P 500 -1.06% suggests relative weakness into today.
Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-4.63% over the next week and ~-6.2% over the next month (bearish bias).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: OI put/call 0.84 leans mildly bullish (more call OI than puts), while volume put/call 0.95 is near neutral (day’s flow not strongly risk-on).
Volatility: IV (30d) 54.97 vs historical vol 43.92 → options imply elevated forward uncertainty; IV percentile 93.63 signals IV is extremely high vs its own history.
Activity: Today’s volume ~3,009 is below recent 5D/10D averages (6,626 / 4,476), suggesting no big fresh options “push” today despite high IV.
Takeaway: Options market is pricing a large move, but directional conviction is only mildly bullish—more consistent with “event/uncertainty premium” than a clear upside bet.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
LS Power acquisition completed (adds 18 gas-fired facilities; generation capacity ~doubles to ~25 GW), which can expand earnings power if integration and market conditions cooperate.
Ongoing Street support: multiple Buy/Overweight ratings with high price targets (e.g., UBS $211; Wells Fargo $206; Jefferies still Buy despite cut).
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-24 pre-market) could provide clarity on integration, updated long-term growth targets, and synergy realization.
Governance addition: New board appointment (Sanjay Kapoor) may be viewed as incremental positive on oversight/expertise.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
was framed as below consensus in at least one headline, increasing near-term sentiment risk.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $7.601B, up +5.35% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Profitability: Net income $135M, down -117.22% YoY; EPS $0.69, down -118.21% YoY (sharp earnings deterioration vs prior year).
Margins: Gross margin 18.55%, up +6.06% YoY (some operational improvement at the gross level, but not flowing through to bottom-line in this snapshot).
Setup into next report: Next earnings is QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-24 (pre-market); market will likely focus on LS Power integration impact and quality/durability of 2026 guidance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Analyst stance remains broadly bullish with Buy/Overweight ratings and high targets; however, there was a recent notable price-target cut.
Key changes:
2026-01-27 Jefferies: PT cut to $181 from $198, rating stays Buy (tempered assumptions on Texas power and PJM long-term capacity, but still constructive).
2026-01-20 Wells Fargo: PT raised to $206 from $202, Overweight.
2025-12-09 UBS: Initiated Buy, PT $211.
2025-11-07 BMO: PT raised to $195 from $185, Market Perform.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Strong FCF narrative, scaled platform (retail + generation), acquisition-driven growth runway, and multiple bullish targets implying sizable upside from current price.
Cons: Mixed messaging on 2026 guidance vs consensus, power-market assumption sensitivity, and near-term integration/execution risk—consistent with why the chart is currently weak.
Wall Street analysts forecast NRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRG is 200.75 USD with a low forecast of 145 USD and a high forecast of 240 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRG is 200.75 USD with a low forecast of 145 USD and a high forecast of 240 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 144.440
Low
145
Averages
200.75
High
240
Current: 144.440
Low
145
Averages
200.75
High
240
Jefferies
Buy
downgrade
$198 -> $181
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$198 -> $181
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on NRG Energy to $181 from $198 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm continues to see NRG as "the best positioned IPP to benefit" from the PJM backstop procurement process with its new generation and additionality strategy, it moderates estimates for lower Texas power and PJM long-term capacity assumptions. With the LS Power deal close imminent, the firm expects a comprehensive long-term growth rate refresh by the late February earnings call, the analyst added.
Wells Fargo
Shahriar Pourreza
Overweight
maintain
$202 -> $206
2026-01-20
Reason
Wells Fargo
Shahriar Pourreza
Price Target
$202 -> $206
2026-01-20
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Shahriar Pourreza raised the firm's price target on NRG Energy to $206 from $202 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. There isn't a giga-deal on the board for NRG, and the team is not far behind the group despite investors being slow to catch up, the firm notes.
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