Should I Buy NREF? NREF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

14.850

1 Day change

-0.07%

52 Week Range

16.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: upside looks limited near resistance while 1-month pattern odds skew negative.
Price is close to the Street’s latest target ($14) and above the pivot, so risk/reward is not compelling for a “buy now” decision.
Options positioning is bullish-leaning (low put/call), but activity is extremely thin (only 1 contract traded), reducing confidence in the signal.
With earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market), waiting for the event-driven move would be more rational; since you’re unwilling to wait, the best call is HOLD rather than chase.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend is up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0283) but contracting, implying upside momentum is weakening.
RSI (6): 57.24 (neutral-to-mildly bullish), not signaling an oversold entry.
Key levels: Pivot 14.749; near-term resistance R1 15.074 then R2 15.275; support S1 14.423 then S2 14.222. Current price (14.93) sits closer to resistance than support, making the immediate entry less attractive.
Pattern/short-horizon odds: Similar-pattern model shows +1.51% next day and +1.71% next week, but -2.54% next month—good for a quick pop, weaker for holding.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call OI ratio 0.33 (calls outweigh puts) = bullish-leaning positioning.
Sentiment (Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 0.0, but total volume is only 1 contract today—signal is not robust.
Volatility: 30D IV 51.37 vs historical vol 23.07 (IV notably elevated), suggesting the market is pricing meaningful uncertainty (often around upcoming events like earnings).
Liquidity/interest: Total open interest 279; today’s volume vs 30D avg is 33.33%—very light participation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) could re-rate the stock if results/guide surprise positively.
- Technical trend remains constructive with bullish moving-average stack.
- Options open-interest skew favors calls (bullish tilt).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and R2 (15.275), increasing the chance of near-term stall/pullback.
sits below the current price, implying capped upside per Wall St.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 87.36M, +102.23% YoY (strong growth).
Net income: 35.03M, +117.37% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: 0.80, +50.94% YoY (solid per-share growth).
Gross margin: 84.49%, +32.64% YoY (material improvement in profitability).
Takeaway: Fundamentals in the latest quarter show strong YoY acceleration, but the next major catalyst is the upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings release.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-08 (Keefe Bruyette): Price target lowered to $14 from $14.50; rating maintained at Market Perform.
Trend: Slightly negative revision (target cut) with no upgrade—signals a neutral-to-cautious Wall Street stance.
Wall St pros: Recognizes the business as broadly “performing with the market” (no major red flags implied by rating).
Wall St cons: Target below current price suggests limited near-term upside and less conviction to buy aggressively at current levels.
Ownership/trading backdrop: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available; no notable politician/influencer trading provided.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NREF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NREF is 14.5 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 14.860

Low

Averages

14.5

High

Current: 14.860

Low

Averages

14.5

High

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

downgrade

$14

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$14

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on NexPoint Real Estate Finance to $14 from $14.50 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

Keefe Bruyette

Jade Rahmani

Market Perform

downgrade

2025-11-04

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Jade Rahmani

Price Target

2025-11-04

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Jade Rahmani lowered the firm's price target on NexPoint Real Estate Finance to $13.25 from $14.25 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

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NREF Should I Buy

NREF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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