Should I Buy NRDS? NRDS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy NerdWallet Inc (NRDS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

10.540

1 Day change

2.33%

52 Week Range

16.240

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy NRDS now for a rebound-style entry: RSI is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~~15) with price sitting just above the next major support zone (~~10.08), which typically sets up mean-reversion pops.
Fundamentals and Street framing are improving (multiple price-target raises; Q3’25 showed solid revenue growth and strong profitability), which supports buying dips rather than fading them.
Near-term catalyst is Q4/FY2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (after hours); options are pricing a large move (very high IV), so sentiment expects action.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish in the short term (MACD histogram -0.206 and negatively expanding), consistent with today’s sharp drop (-5.68%).
Momentum: Extremely oversold (RSI_6 ≈ 15.1), which often precedes sharp snapback rallies even within broader downtrends.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the selloff may be reaching an inflection area, but confirmation isn’t present yet.
Key levels:
- Immediate downside level to watch: S2 ~ 10.078 (current ~10.30 is close).
- Reclaim zones/targets on a bounce: S1 ~ 10.75, then Pivot ~ 11.84, then R1 ~ 12.92.
Pattern-based probability (provided): Similar pattern mapping implies ~+8.32% over the next month, supportive of buying weakness for a bounce.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call = 0.2: Structurally call-heavy positioning (more bullish longer-horizon positioning).
Volume put/call = 4.0 with put volume 831 vs call volume 208: Today’s flow is decisively defensive/bearish, consistent with the selloff.
Implied vol (30D) ~95.7 vs historical vol ~43.4 and IV percentile ~93: Options are pricing a big near-term move; sentiment is tense and event-driven.
Activity spike: Today’s option volume is ~315% of the 30-day average, signaling heightened attention and positioning into upcoming catalysts (notably earnings).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: Q4/FY2025 earnings scheduled 2026-02-25 (AH)—clear event that can re-rate the stock quickly.
- Operational narrative improving (per analysts): Signs NRDS may be nearing the end of Google/SEO-related headwinds vs peers.
- Fundamental momentum (latest reported quarter): Q3’25 revenue +12.44% YoY with strong margin profile supports a “buy-the-dip” setup.
- Extreme oversold technical condition: RSI at capitulation-like levels increases odds of a tradable bounce.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term tape is weak: MACD is worsening and price is below key reference levels (pivot 11.84; also below S1 10.75).
- Options flow today is bearish (put volume dominating), implying traders are positioning for more downside or hedging aggressively.
- Revenue visibility remains a concern on the Street (Morgan Stanley keeps Equal Weight citing limited visibility).
- No supportive positioning signal from Intellectia modules today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax buy trigger).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $215.1M, +12.44% YoY (healthy top-line growth).
- Net income: $26.3M, up sharply YoY (profitability inflection vs prior-year comp).
- EPS: $0.34 (reported as flat YoY in the snapshot).
- Gross margin: 92.89%, +2.36% YoY (very strong margin profile).
Takeaway: Growth is positive and profitability/margins look strong, supporting accumulation on selloffs ahead of earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (latest set of updates: Nov 2025): Multiple firms raised price targets after Q3 results, signaling improving confidence.
Key calls:
- Oppenheimer: Outperform, PT $18 (raised from $16) citing stronger EBITDA trajectory and product/marketing execution.
- KeyBanc: Overweight, PT $16 (raised) citing better-than-expected Q3 and expectation for Q4 growth acceleration.
- Barclays: Overweight, PT $17 (raised) saying NRDS may be closer to the end of SEO pressure.
- Morgan Stanley: Equal Weight, PT $14 (raised) — encouraged by EBITDA resilience but highlights limited revenue visibility.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: improving execution, easing SEO headwinds, better EBITDA profile, upside to targets (current ~$10.3 vs PTs ~$14–$18).
- Cons: still debated revenue visibility and near-term traffic/LLM dynamics, reflected in at least one neutral rating.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NRDS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRDS is 17 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 10.300

Low

Averages

High

Current: 10.300

Low

Averages

High

Oppenheimer

Jed Kelly

Outperform

maintain

$16 -> $18

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

Oppenheimer

Jed Kelly

Price Target

$16 -> $18

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Jed Kelly raised the firm's price target on NerdWallet to $18 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is increasing NerdWallet 2025/2026 EBITDA by 16%/8% on accelerated variable marketing profit dollars from higher paid marketing competencies that are benefiting from a larger product suite, particularly towards sub-prime consumers. NerdWallet remains heads down in leveraging its content/user-base advantages to become more vertically integrated, and Oppenheimer sees successful execution of this strategy creating more reoccurring consumer relationships that increase earnings visibility and reduce traffic headwinds, ultimately benefiting the multiple.

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

maintain

$12 -> $14

2025-11-10

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$12 -> $14

2025-11-10

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on NerdWallet to $14 from $12 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is "encouraged" by NerdWallet's ability to drive EBITDA in a range of top-line scenarios and calls commentary on LLM sourcing frequency "positive," but continues to cite limited revenue visibility for its Equal Weight rating.

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NRDS Should I Buy

NRDS Should I Buy

Should You Buy NerdWallet Inc (NRDS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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