Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the stock is reacting to weak quarter profitability (net loss) and the near-term momentum signal (MACD) is deteriorating.
Technically, NOV is sitting right on a key pivot/support area (~18.62). That can produce a bounce, but the current downside momentum makes the entry unattractive right now.
Options positioning is aggressively call-skewed (bullish sentiment), but implied volatility is elevated, implying the market is pricing larger moves and making risk/reward less clean.
Price/market context: NOV is down ~3.82% in regular trading (and was down in pre-market), underperforming alongside a weak tape (S&P 500 -1.09%).
Trend structure: Moving averages are still bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend hasn’t broken.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.023) and negatively expanding → bearish near-term momentum is increasing.
RSI: RSI_6 ~50.7 (neutral) → no oversold condition to force a high-conviction dip-buy.
Levels: Pivot ~18.615 (price ~18.64 is essentially at pivot). Resistance: 19.31 then 19.73. Support: 17.92 then 17.50. A break below ~17.92 would weaken the setup materially.
Activity: Today’s options volume (559) is only ~65% of 30-day average → not a “panic” or capitulation-style flow.
Volatility: 30D IV ~46.96 vs historical vol ~35.91, with IV percentile ~84.46 → options are relatively expensive; market is pricing elevated uncertainty/expected movement.
Takeaway: Sentiment is bullish, but elevated IV suggests traders expect larger swings—this supports “wait for confirmation” rather than chase an entry immediately after a selloff.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Barclays upgrade (Underweight → Equal Weight) and price target lift to $20 tied to confidence in the new CEO’s repositioning plan.
Multiple recent targets clustered above the current price (e.g., $20 Susquehanna; $22 TD Cowen), implying Street sees rebound potential if execution improves.
Bullish call-skew in options positioning can support upside squeezes/bounces if price stabilizes above support.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
showed revenue down ~1% YoY and a net loss, with EPS negative—fundamental momentum is currently weak.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.277B, down ~1.34% YoY → mild top-line contraction.
Profitability: Net income -$78M (down ~148.75% YoY) and EPS -$0.21 (down ~151.22% YoY) → sharp deterioration versus prior year.
Margin: Gross margin 20.29%, down ~5.01% YoY → profitability headwind.
Bottom line: Growth/profit trend in the most recent quarter does not support an “urgent buy now” decision.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is improving at the margin: Barclays upgraded to Equal Weight with PT raised to $20 (from $15) following CEO transition.
Other firms recently raised price targets (Susquehanna to $20; TD Cowen to $22), while several remain Neutral/Equal Weight, reflecting cautious optimism.
Wall Street pros: perceived cyclical tailwinds into 2026 and upside if upstream spending improves / leadership execution works.
Wall Street cons: cycle uncertainty/plateau concerns and NOV viewed by some as less levered to the most resilient oilfield spending areas; recent quarter results (loss, margin pressure) reinforce caution.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast NOV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NOV is 17.27 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NOV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NOV is 17.27 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
5 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 18.240
Low
14
Averages
17.27
High
22
Current: 18.240
Low
14
Averages
17.27
High
22
Susquehanna
Positive
maintain
$20 -> $21
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Susquehanna
Price Target
$20 -> $21
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Positive
Reason
Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on NOV Inc. to $21 from $20 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results highlighted by better than expected free cash flow.
Stifel
Buy
upgrade
$19 -> $21
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$19 -> $21
2026-02-06
New
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on NOV Inc. to $21 from $19 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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