Should I Buy NNI? NNI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Nelnet Inc (NNI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

132.120

1 Day change

-0.09%

52 Week Range

142.870

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price action is indecisive (neutral RSI, contracting positive MACD) and pattern-based odds skew bearish over the next week/month.
With earnings imminent (late Feb / early Mar window), event risk is high while technical momentum is not strong enough to justify an impatient entry.
Options positioning looks structurally bullish (very low put/call OI ratio), but the options market is extremely illiquid today, limiting how much confidence to place in that signal.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.068) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 47.7 is neutral—no oversold “snap-back” setup and no strong bullish thrust.
Moving averages: Converging MAs typically indicate consolidation/uncertainty rather than a clean trend.
Levels to watch: Pivot 131.91 (price 132.53 is just above), support 129.41 / 127.86; resistance 134.42 / 135.97. Near-pivot trading implies limited edge.
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): ~40% chance of -5.86% next week and -4.05% next month, which argues against chasing now.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.04 (calls dominate) → generally bullish sentiment/positioning.
Actual trading flow today: total volume is 1 contract (puts 1, calls 0) → sentiment read is low-confidence due to illiquidity.
Volatility: IV 30d 22.5% vs HV 25.57%; IV percentile 15.2 / IV rank 3.68 → options are relatively “cheap,” but without a clear directional setup this is not a standalone buy trigger.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Dividend: Board declared $0.33/share cash dividend (record date Feb 27, 2026, payable Mar 13, 2026)—supportive for income-oriented holders.
- Earnings catalyst: Upcoming Q4/full-year results could unlock upside if credit/servicing/loan-sale dynamics surprise positively.
- Prior quarter showed strong YoY improvements (supports the narrative that operating conditions improved in 2025).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term catalyst risk: Earnings are upcoming (company indicated release after close Feb 26, 2026; calendar also flags early March), which can produce a sharp move without a favorable pre-setup.
- Technicals lack confirmation: momentum is not strengthening (MACD contracting; RSI neutral).
- Quant/pattern read points to weaker odds over the next week/month.
- Sentiment/positioning data from options is unreliable today due to extremely low volume.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $546.64M, +11.89% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: $104.75M, +4370.76% YoY (very large jump—suggests favorable comps and/or one-time/credit/provision dynamics).
EPS: $2.88, +4700% YoY (mirrors the unusually strong YoY net income swing).
Gross margin: 65.6%, +36.81% YoY (strong profitability trend in the reported quarter).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent Street stance is consistently Hold (TD Cowen).
Price targets have been raised: $130 (Nov 2025) → $135 (Nov 2025) → $140 (Jan 2026).
Implied upside to PT: $140 vs $132.53 is roughly ~5.6%, suggesting limited upside expectation from the covering analyst.
Wall Street pros: improving targets and acknowledgment of sector tailwinds/credit themes.
Wall Street cons: maintained Hold rating despite target raises—signals they don’t see a compelling risk/reward entry at current levels.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NNI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NNI is 140 USD with a low forecast of 140 USD and a high forecast of 140 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 132.240

Low

140

Averages

140

High

140

Current: 132.240

Low

140

Averages

140

High

140

TD Cowen

Hold

maintain

$135 -> $140

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$135 -> $140

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Nelnet to $140 from $135 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the specialty finance group as part of its 2026 outlook.

TD Cowen

Moshe Orenbuch

Hold

maintain

$135 -> $140

2026-01-08

Reason

TD Cowen

Moshe Orenbuch

Price Target

$135 -> $140

2026-01-08

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch raised the firm's price target on Nelnet to $140 from $135 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated its price target to reflect is outlook in the Specialty Finance sector affected by macro economic factors and secualr growth in various areas of credit card, auto lending, student lending, non-prime lending, buy-now-pay-later, and lease to own.

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NNI Should I Buy

NNI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Nelnet Inc (NNI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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