Should I Buy NMR? NMR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

9.120

1 Day change

5.68%

52 Week Range

9.470

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is bearish (MACD worsening) and price is below the key pivot (8.93), with downside risk toward support (8.56/8.34).
Options positioning is very call-heavy (put/call OI 0.14; put volume essentially zero), which is mildly supportive, but it’s not paired with a clear technical reversal signal today.
Fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2026/Q2) show modest YoY declines in revenue, net income, and EPS—harder to justify chasing without a technical turn.
If you already own it, this is more of a HOLD than an add: wait for a reclaim of ~8.93 pivot or a bullish MACD/RSI turn before sizing up.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0953) and negatively expanding, signaling weakening momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) at 35.46 is weak (near oversold territory), but not yet showing a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition phase, but current momentum favors sellers until price reclaims key levels.
Levels to watch:
- Pivot (inflection): 8.93 (price 8.68 is below pivot = bearish bias)
- Support: 8.56 (S1), then 8.34 (S2)
- Resistance: 9.30 (R1), then 9.52 (R2)
Pattern-based forward odds (similar candlesticks): modest upside expectancy (next day +0.27%, next week +2.23%, next month +11.48%), but current indicators still argue this is not an optimal “buy now” setup.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Very bullish skew (put/call open interest ratio 0.14), suggesting more call interest than put hedging.
Flow today: Put volume is 0 and call volume is 66; volume put/call ratio 0.0 = no meaningful downside speculation today.
Volatility: 30D IV ~27.19 vs HV ~25.4 (IV slightly above realized). IV percentile ~28.69 / IV rank ~11.95 indicates IV is relatively low vs its own history—options aren’t pricing extreme near-term moves.
Interpretation: Sentiment leans bullish/constructive, but the tape (MACD/price below pivot) hasn’t confirmed a turn yet.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Options sentiment is strongly call-skewed (low put/call OI), implying the market is not heavily positioned for downside.
- News: Continued strength highlighted in the Japanese market operations (supports baseline earnings power).
- Strategic narrative: Mention of supporting a crypto firm seeking a U.S. banking license could be a medium-term storyline catalyst if traction/partnership economics become clearer.
- Gross margin improved sharply in 2026/Q2 (+14.03% YoY), which can help cushion earnings if sustained.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

increases the odds of retesting 8.56/8.34 supports.
showed declines in revenue, net income, and EPS (~-5% YoY), which can weaken “buy now” conviction.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q2.
Revenue: 7,875,730,850.85 (-5.41% YoY) — mild contraction.
Net income: 624,503,467.74 (-5.35% YoY) — tracking revenue down.
EPS: 0.21 (-4.55% YoY) — modest earnings decline.
Margin: Gross margin 44.39 (+14.03% YoY) — a notable positive, but it hasn’t translated into YoY earnings growth yet.
Overall read: Mixed-to-soft growth trend near-term (down YoY), with improving margin as the key bright spot.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change: [2026-01-06] Goldman Sachs removed “Namura Shipbuilding” from its APAC Conviction List (note: this item appears inconsistent with Nomura Holdings/NMR and may not be directly applicable; if intended to reference Nomura, it would still be a sentiment-negative de-emphasis).
Trend summary: No clear string of upgrades/target raises provided; the only visible signal is a de-risking/de-emphasis.
Wall Street pro view (from provided data):
- Pros: Stronger Japan performance commentary; margin improvement; options market leaning bullish.
- Cons: Lack of forward guidance; recent YoY declines in revenue/earnings; technicals not supportive for immediate entry.
Influential buying/selling: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no significant trends). Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NMR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 8.630

Low

Averages

High

Current: 8.630

Low

Averages

High

Goldman Sachs

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

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