Should I Buy NMIH? NMIH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

41.050

1 Day change

-0.51%

52 Week Range

43.200

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Good buy right now (momentum + sentiment align): BUY. Trend is clearly bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, expanding positive MACD) and the stock is outperforming on a down S&P 500 day.
Options positioning is strongly bullish (very low put/call open interest), supporting continued upside bias into the next catalyst.
Caveat for near-term entry: price is pushing into the 41.69 resistance area while short-term RSI is stretched, so upside may be choppier, but for an impatient buyer the data still favors initiating now rather than waiting.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Politician/congress activity check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders: neutral.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating strong short-, medium-, and long-term uptrend alignment.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.301 and expanding → bullish momentum strengthening.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 = 77.24 (stretched/overbought zone), which often precedes pauses or pullbacks even in strong uptrends.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 39.246 (near-term trend line in the sand)
- Resistance: R2 41.694 (current price 41.4 is just below this), then a breakout could extend the move
- Support: R1 40.759 (now first support), then S1 37.734
Pattern-based forward drift (model): +0.88% 1-week expectation, but slightly negative 1-month (-1.06%), implying near-term strength with potential consolidation afterward.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest skew: Calls 863 vs puts 105 → OI put/call = 0.12, strongly bullish positioning.
Implied volatility: 30D IV 57.36% vs historical vol 32.79% → options are pricing a larger-than-usual move.
IV percentile: 90.84 (very elevated vs its own history) → market is braced for a sizable catalyst-driven move.
Volume: reported 0 today (and very low recent averages), so sentiment read is driven more by open interest positioning than fresh daily flow.
Interpretation: Options market is positioned bullish (low put/call), while elevated IV suggests traders expect a sharp move (often around earnings).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 after hours (EPS est. 1.17) can act as a near-term driver.
- Macro tailwind narrative (analyst-driven): expectations for a better mortgage origination environment in 2026 and a benign credit backdrop.
- Price action/relative strength: stock up +2.64% while S&P 500 is -0.75%, signaling strong demand.
- Street tone improving: recent upgrade (KBW) and price target increases support incremental buyers.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term stretched technicals: RSI_6 77.24 + price near R2 41.694 increases odds of a pause/pullback even if the bigger trend stays bullish.
- High implied volatility: IV is elevated (percentile ~90.84), implying the market expects a large move; this can coincide with sharp post-event swings.
- Positioning/trend data not confirming a perfect entry: Intellectia signals show no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax buy trigger today.
- Flow/behavioral: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral, providing no additional “smart money” confirmation.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $178.679M, +7.58% YoY (steady top-line growth)
- Net income: $95.999M, +3.44% YoY (profit growing, but slower than revenue)
- EPS: 1.22, +6.09% YoY (solid per-share growth)
Takeaway: fundamentals show consistent growth into the upcoming earnings cycle, supporting the bullish technical backdrop.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent changes): analyst stance has improved with a recent upgrade and higher price targets.
2025-12-17 (Keefe Bruyette / KBW): Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform; PT raised to $48 (from $46). Thesis: constructive on mortgage insurers; expects double-digit book value growth.
2026-01-06 (Barclays): Kept Equal Weight; PT raised to $44 (from $43). Thesis: benign credit + better mortgage origination market in 2026.
Wall Street pros/cons summary:
- Pros: improving 2026 outlook for mortgage insurance/originations; targets moving up; one firm upgraded to Outperform.
- Cons: not unanimous (Barclays still neutral/Equal Weight), implying upside exists but may be more incremental from here.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NMIH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NMIH is 45.4 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 49 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 41.260

Low

Averages

45.4

High

Current: 41.260

Low

Averages

45.4

High

Barclays

Equal Weight

maintain

$43 -> $44

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$43 -> $44

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on NMI Holdings to $44 from $43 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees additional upside in select consumer finance name in 2026. A "benign' credit environment sets the stage for loan growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays also forecasts a better mortgage origination market in 2026. The firm adjusted price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.

Keefe Bruyette

Bose George

Market Perform

Outperform

upgrade

$46 -> $48

2025-12-17

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Bose George

Price Target

$46 -> $48

2025-12-17

upgrade

Market Perform

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Bose George upgraded NMI Holdings to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $48, up from $46. The firm expects a decline in short rates in 2026, but thinks the long-end will remain fairly range-bound. Heading into 2026, Keefe is "reasonably constructive" on the mortgage insurers given its expectation that the companies will generate double-digit book value growth. It upgrades NMI Holdings as part of its 2026 outlook.

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NMIH Should I Buy

NMIH Should I Buy

Should You Buy NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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