Options positioning is very call-heavy (bullish), which raises the odds of a short-term bounce, but it’s not enough to override the current bearish technical setup.
With no near-term news catalysts and the company still pre-revenue, this remains a higher-risk, sentiment-driven trade rather than a clean technical entry today.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish in the near term — MACD histogram is negative (-0.101) and expanding lower (downside momentum strengthening).
RSI: RSI(6) ~23 is deeply oversold (despite the provided label), which can fuel a reflex bounce, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest indecision, but the latest sharp drop favors sellers until price reclaims key levels.
Key levels: Current price 2.08 is below S1 (2.172) (bearish break). Next support is S2 ~1.894. Overhead levels to regain: Pivot 2.623, then R1 3.074.
Pattern-based outlook provided: modest positive drift probabilities (next week/month), but the immediate tape is weak after today’s breakdown.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Extremely call-skewed (OI put/call 0.15; volume put/call 0.0 with 1915 calls vs 4 puts) → bullish sentiment/speculation.
Activity: Volume is elevated vs 30-day average (~277%), suggesting fresh interest.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~111% vs HV ~88.6% (options pricing in large moves); IV percentile ~53% (mid-range), but IV rank ~14 (low vs past year), implying IV isn’t at extremes relative to its own history.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning “upside,” but the underlying price action is still bearish; this looks more like a high-volatility bounce attempt than a confirmed reversal setup.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Street view remains broadly constructive (multiple Buys/Outperform) with targets far above spot, implying perceived upside if execution/funding holds.
Quebec-based mine/anode plant development narrative and stated offtake coverage (per analyst notes) can support longer-term sentiment.
Oversold technical condition + very bullish options skew increases odds of a short-term mean-reversion pop.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Pre-revenue profile (revenue still
keeps the stock sensitive to funding, sentiment, and risk-off tape.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 0 (no operating revenue yet).
Profitability: Still deeply loss-making (Net Income about -76.7M; EPS -0.5), though “improved” YoY per provided figures (base-effect improvement, but not a return to profitability).
Overall: Financial trend reflects a development-stage company—progress is better measured by project milestones/funding rather than near-term earnings power.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Ratings are positive overall (Buy/Outperform), but price targets have recently been trimmed due to dilution.
Key changes:
2026-01-30: H.C. Wainwright keeps Buy, PT cut to $5.50 from $7.50 (dilution).
2026-01-20: Maxim initiates Buy, PT $6.
2025-12-12: BMO initiates Outperform, PT C$6.
Wall Street pros: Large implied upside to targets; supportive narrative around project build-out/offtakes.
Wall Street cons: Execution + financing/dilution risk is front and center; targets can fall further if additional capital raises occur.
Wall Street analysts forecast NMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NMG is 5.02 USD with a low forecast of 3.59 USD and a high forecast of 7.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NMG is 5.02 USD with a low forecast of 3.59 USD and a high forecast of 7.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1.980
Low
3.59
Averages
5.02
High
7.5
Current: 1.980
Low
3.59
Averages
5.02
High
7.5
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright lowered the firm's price target on Nouveau Monde to $5.50 from $7.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites dilution from the company's recent equity raise for the target cut.
Maxim
Tate Sullivan
Buy
initiated
$6
2026-01-20
Reason
Maxim
Tate Sullivan
Price Target
$6
2026-01-20
initiated
Buy
Reason
Maxim analyst Tate Sullivan initiated coverage of Nouveau Monde with a Buy rating and $6 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NMG
