Should I Buy NLY? NLY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

22.850

1 Day change

-0.57%

52 Week Range

24.520

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now: sentiment and fundamentals are improving (book value up, strong Q4 economic return), options flow is strongly call-skewed, and Street price targets were broadly raised (most clustered around $24–$25).
Near-term tape is not fully bullish (MACD still negative, price below pivot), but the risk/reward is acceptable for an impatient buyer with support nearby (~$22.72).
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Technical Analysis

Current price $23.105 is below the pivot (23.494), suggesting the stock is slightly under near-term balance and still in a mild pullback phase.
MACD histogram -0.157 (below zero) but “negatively contracting” indicates downside momentum is easing (bearish pressure may be fading, not reversed yet).
RSI(6) = 40.3: neutral-to-soft; not oversold, but shows weaker short-term momentum.
Moving averages are converging: typically a “compression” phase that often precedes a larger move; direction not confirmed yet.
Key levels: Support S1 $22.715 (then S2 $22.233). Resistance R1 $24.273 (then R2 $24.755). A reclaim of $23.49–$24.27 would improve the trend setup.
Pattern-based odds provided: ~60% chance of a small uptick next day (+0.68%), but modest weakness expected over the next week/month (downside bias on that horizon).

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open Interest Put/Call = 0.97: positioning is close to balanced (not a fearful put-heavy market).
Option Volume Put/Call = 0.05: today’s flow is overwhelmingly call-dominant (very bullish near-term sentiment/positioning).
Total option volume 14,351 is ~103% of 30-day average: elevated participation, so today’s call-skew matters more.
IV (30d) 22.88 vs historical vol 26.22: implied vol is not stretched; options aren’t “pricing panic.”
IV percentile ~50.6 (mid-range): sentiment is bullish via flow, but volatility pricing is fairly neutral.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 2025 economic return of 8.6% (and >20% full-year): reinforces that the operating/backdrop improved meaningfully.
- Book value per share increased to $20.21 (from $19.25): supportive for mortgage REIT sentiment and valuation confidence.
- Capital raising in Q4 and 2025 (portfolio growth ~30%): indicates ability to scale into a better spread/volatility environment.
- Management intent to allocate more into non-Agency and MSR: can diversify earnings drivers if executed well.
- Analyst narrative tailwinds cited across notes: tightening agency MBS spreads, lower rate volatility, and sector backdrop shifting positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical setup is not “clean bullish” yet (MACD still negative; price below pivot), so upside may be choppy before a breakout.
- Short-horizon statistical trend provided leans slightly negative over the next week/month.
- As a mortgage REIT, results remain highly sensitive to rates/spreads and policy-driven mortgage market shifts (the Street itself calls the macro “mixed”).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.402B, +42.13% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Net income: $971.1M, +119.04% YoY (very strong profitability improvement).
EPS: $1.40, +79.49% YoY (solid earnings growth).
Gross margin: 44.19, +41.77% YoY (margin expansion supports the quality of the quarter).
Overall read: Q4 shows a clear upswing in earnings power and balance-sheet/book-value trajectory—supportive for buying despite mixed short-term technicals.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend is decisively constructive: multiple firms raised price targets in January 2026, typically into the $24–$25 range.
Bullish/pro-side: Wells Fargo (Overweight, PT $25), JPMorgan (Overweight, PT $25), Keefe Bruyette (Outperform, PT $25), JonesResearch (Buy, PT $25), Piper Sandler (Overweight, PT $23.5).
More neutral-side: Barclays (Equal Weight, PT $24) and BofA (Neutral, PT $23.5).
Wall Street pros: improving book value backdrop, tighter agency spreads, diversified platform (agency MBS/MSR/credit), and an attractive dividend yield cited (~11.7% per Wells).
Wall Street cons: macro/policy uncertainty still referenced; some firms remain neutral, implying upside exists but not without rate/spread sensitivity.
Influential/political trading: no recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders flagged as neutral with no significant recent trend.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NLY is 23.09 USD with a low forecast of 21.5 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 22.980

Low

21.5

Averages

23.09

High

Current: 22.980

Low

21.5

Averages

23.09

High

RBC Capital

Kenneth Lee

Outperform

maintain

$23 -> $25

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

RBC Capital

Kenneth Lee

Price Target

$23 -> $25

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Kenneth Lee raised the firm's price target on Annaly Capital to $25 from $23 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. Strong economic returns in the quarter were a highlight, with MBS spreads tightening considerably, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Barclays

Terry Ma

Equal Weight

maintain

$23 -> $24

2026-01-30

Reason

Barclays

Terry Ma

Price Target

$23 -> $24

2026-01-30

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Terry Ma raised the firm's price target on Annaly Capital to $24 from $23 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as solid.

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NLY Should I Buy

NLY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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