Should I Buy NKTR? NKTR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

36.810

1 Day change

4.81%

52 Week Range

66.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: signals are mixed and near-term odds skew to sideways/down (pattern model: -1.09% next week, -4.18% next month).
Trend is technically constructive on longer MAs, but momentum is weakening (MACD contracting, RSI ~~43) and price is sitting near the pivot (~~36.79) with limited immediate upside to resistance (~~39.21) versus downside to support (~~34.36).
Options sentiment is very call-heavy (bullish/speculative), but implied volatility is extremely elevated, often coinciding with choppy price action rather than clean upside follow-through.
Wall Street is bullish with large price targets, but fundamentals are still deteriorating (2025/Q3 revenue and EPS down YoY) and hedge funds have been heavy net sellers—so risk/reward isn’t compelling “right now” without a fresh catalyst.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader uptrend is still intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.625) but positively contracting, indicating upside momentum is fading.
RSI: RSI_6 at 42.665 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), implying no clear “snap-back” buy signal.
Key levels: Pivot 36.786 is the near-term balance point; resistance at R1 39.212 (then R2 40.71). Support at S1 34.36 (then S2 32.862).
Immediate tape: Regular session down -1.51% with a +1.06% pre-market bounce—suggests stabilization, not confirmation of a new leg up.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put-call ratios are extremely low (OI PCR 0.42; Volume PCR 0.04), indicating strong call bias and bullish/speculative sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV ~134.67 vs historical vol ~54.22, with IV percentile 81.21—options are pricing very large moves; this often signals uncertainty and can precede whipsaws.
Activity: Today’s option volume (729) is below the 5D/10D averages (1573/1679), but open interest is elevated (today vs 30D avg ~120.57%), implying existing positioning is sizable even if today’s flow is lighter.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-03 after hours can act as a volatility catalyst.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Hedge funds selling aggressively: selling amount increased 1229.84% over the last quarter—strong institutional risk-off signal.
- Near-term drift signals: Similar-pattern model implies modest next-day upside but negative 1-week and 1-month expectations.
- Elevated IV/uncertainty: very high implied volatility can reflect unresolved risk and can weigh on share demand.
- News flow is not meaningfully supportive: the only recent item is an employee inducement option grant (neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 11.79M, down -51.13% YoY (sharp contraction).
Net income: -35.522M (loss), down -4.14% YoY (loss widened modestly).
EPS: -1.87, down -29.70% YoY (worse per-share profitability).
Gross margin: 100, up 22.52% YoY (improved margin metric, but overall scale/profitability remains weak).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Recent coverage and updates (late Nov–mid Dec 2025) skew decisively bullish with Buy/Outperform ratings maintained and price targets raised/initiated.
Price targets: Citi initiated at $102 (with a positive 90-day catalyst watch); Jefferies raised to $121; Oppenheimer raised to $115; H.C. Wainwright raised to $135.
Pros (Wall St view): Rezpeg activity seen as compelling with asymmetrical upside into clinical/readout-driven re-rating potential; novel MoA, clean safety/durability mentioned.
Cons (Wall St view): Phase 2b alopecia areata missed the primary endpoint narrowly (statistical nuance depending on exclusions), implying clinical/regulatory execution risk remains high despite optimistic interpretations.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral (no significant last-month trend).

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NKTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NKTR is 103.71 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 135 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 35.120

Low

Averages

103.71

High

135

Current: 35.120

Low

Averages

103.71

High

135

Oppenheimer

Jay Olson

Outperform

maintain

$98 -> $115

AI Analysis

2025-12-16

Reason

Oppenheimer

Jay Olson

Price Target

$98 -> $115

AI Analysis

2025-12-16

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson raised the firm's price target on Nektar to $115 from $98 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company provided updates on the results from its Phase 2b REZOLVE-AA study evaluating rezpeg in alopecia areata. While the study missed the primary endpoint "by a whisker," excluding four patients with eligibility violations suggests a nominal statistical significance for both doses, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Oppenheimer sees "compelling activity" for rezpeg in alopecia areata. It upped the probability of success for the indication to 50%. Nektar in morning trading is down 8% to $48.88.

H.C. Wainwright

Buy

maintain

$120 -> $135

2025-12-16

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$120 -> $135

2025-12-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Nektar to $135 from $120 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "encouraging" topline results from the 36-week induction phase of its Phase 2b REZOLVE-AA study of rezpeg in alopecia areata. Following the data, the firm is increasing its view of the odds of launch for rezpeg in AA to 25%, from 20%, and it projects the drug to generate risk-adjusted revenues of $59M in 2030, growing to $380M by 2035.

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NKTR Should I Buy

NKTR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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