Should I Buy NKE? NKE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Nike Inc (NKE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

63.920

1 Day change

1.95%

52 Week Range

82.440

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: trend is bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is slipping below the pivot (63.00).
Near-term catalysts skew negative (EEOC discrimination investigation/lawsuit + ongoing cost cuts), which can keep a lid on multiples and sentiment.
Fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2026/Q2) show profit and margin deterioration despite slightly higher revenue—this is not the setup for an impatient buyer.
Options positioning is not screaming “panic bottom” (OI put/call ~1, volume put/call <1), so there’s no strong contrarian buy signal.
Insider buying is a meaningful positive, but it’s not enough to override the weak tape + weakening earnings trend today.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5).
MACD: Histogram -0.213 (below zero) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is easing, not reversing.
RSI(6): 44.63 (neutral-to-weak) → not oversold enough to imply a high-conviction bounce.
Levels to watch: Pivot 63.00 overhead; resistance at 64.99 then 66.22. Support at 61.01 then 59.78.
Path of least resistance: With price ~62.43 (below pivot) and market risk-off (S&P 500 -0.82%), a retest of 61.01 is plausible before any sustainable rebound.
Pattern-based stats provided: short-term bounce odds exist (next day/week positive), but next-month projection is materially negative (-13.85%), aligning with the bearish trend.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: OI put/call 0.96 is roughly balanced (not heavily defensive). Volume put/call 0.61 indicates call volume > put volume → mild bullish/“dip-buying,” but not extreme.
Activity: Today’s options volume (82,200) is ~68.66% of the 30-day average → participation is lighter than usual (weaker signal quality).
Volatility: 30D IV 35.16 vs HV 33.65 (small premium). IV percentile ~51 → mid-range; not a clear “capitulation” volatility setup.
Net takeaway: Options lean slightly bullish on volume, but overall positioning/vol doesn’t confirm a durable bottom today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are buying; reported buying amount up ~343.77% over the last month (supportive signal).
- Brand/product news: ACG relaunch as a standalone outdoor brand and hype releases (Costco/Nike SB Dunk) reinforce brand heat, even if financially minor near-term.
- Some analysts still see a longer-term turnaround path (e.g., RBC/Goldman maintain positive ratings, albeit with lower targets).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Legal/regulatory overhang: EEOC investigation and federal lawsuit alleging discrimination could create ongoing headline risk and potential cost/distraction.
- Restructuring: Job cuts at U.S. distribution centers signal continued margin/efficiency pressure and can be read as demand/ops strain.
- Geographic/segment pressure: Repeated analyst concerns on Greater China and wholesale dynamics (North America) suggest the recovery is uneven.
- Market context: Broad market down (S&P -0.82%) increases downside follow-through risk in a weak-trend stock.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q2.
Revenue: $12.427B, +0.59% YoY → essentially flat growth.
Profitability: Net income $792M, -31.90% YoY; EPS $0.53, -32.05% YoY → earnings power deteriorating.
Margins: Gross margin 40.6%, -6.92% YoY → material compression (key negative for a consumer brand).
Growth quality: Top-line stable, but margin/earnings trend is moving the wrong way—typically not a “buy now” profile without a confirmed technical reversal.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clear downward bias in price targets and a drift toward more cautious stances.
Notable changes: Needham downgraded to Hold (turnaround slower than expected; concerns in NA wholesale and China). Deutsche resumed at Hold with $67 PT. KeyBanc cut PT to $75 (Overweight). Multiple firms cut targets (Goldman to $77, RBC to $78, Truist to $70, Stifel to $65, UBS stays Neutral with $62).
Wall Street pros: Brand strength and product initiatives can support an eventual comeback; valuation closer to historical averages; insider buying cited as supportive.
Wall Street cons: Timelines extended; China called out repeatedly as problematic; margin pressure (incl. tariffs/segment weakness); limited near-term visibility—overall skew is “turnaround, but slow and choppy,” which is not ideal for an impatient entry.

21 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NKE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NKE is 76.11 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

14 Buy

7 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 62.700

Low

Averages

76.11

High

110

Current: 62.700

Low

Averages

76.11

High

110

KeyBanc

Overweight

downgrade

$90 -> $75

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$90 -> $75

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $75 from $90 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that initial turnaround signs are showing but will take time to materialize.

Needham

Tom Nikic

Buy

Hold

downgrade

2026-01-08

Reason

Needham

Tom Nikic

Price Target

2026-01-08

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Needham analyst Tom Nikic downgraded Nike to Hold from Buy without a price target. The company's turnaround is progressing slower than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham is concerned about Nike's recent level of sell-in in its North America wholesale channel. In addition, China "appears highly problematic," and consensus estimates for the next 12-24 months "look too high," contends Needham.

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NKE Should I Buy

NKE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Nike Inc (NKE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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