Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended and technically overbought (RSI~94), which raises near-term pullback risk.
Upside looks more limited near-term: shares are already near Wall Street targets ($53–$54) and close to resistance.
Medium-term backdrop is constructive (bullish trend, hedge funds buying, supportive analyst tone), but the current setup favors waiting for a dip rather than chasing.
Trend is bullish: moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.429), supporting momentum continuation.
Overbought condition is extreme: RSI_6 = 93.963, signaling the stock is stretched and prone to short-term mean reversion.
Price vs levels: current ~52.73 is above R1 (52.238), with next resistance at R2 (53.523). Support to watch is the pivot (50.158), then S1 (48.078).
Pattern-based projection provided: ~70% chance of modest next-day move, but stronger 1-month projection (+11.24%)—still, entries at overbought readings often see better re-entry points.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: very low put/call ratios and zero put volume today skew bullish (calls dominate both OI and volume).
Activity: today’s options volume (93) is ~442.86% of the 30-day average, indicating a notable spike in attention.
Volatility: IV30 ~27.66 vs historical vol ~13.4 implies options are priced relatively rich vs realized; IV rank ~11.15 / IV percentile ~28.69 suggests volatility is not elevated versus its own history, but still above realized vol.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Hedge fund flow: “Hedge Funds are Buying,” with buying amount up ~112.67% QoQ—supports institutional demand.
Analyst support: recent upgrades/raised targets with “Outperform” ratings reinforce sentiment.
Business stability narrative from analysts: emphasis on strong balance sheet, minimal equity needs, and ability to fund capex without material dilution.
Potential upside sensitivity: Mizuho notes potential near-term earnings upside from natural gas market volatility.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
is already near the $53–$54 target range, reducing immediate risk/reward.
Profitability: Net income 122,490,000 (-6.72% YoY) and EPS 1.21 (-7.63% YoY) — earnings declined despite revenue growth.
Margins: Gross margin up sharply (91.59, +81.94% YoY as provided) — margin trend appears favorable, but it did not translate into higher EPS this quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: analysts have recently become more constructive.
[2025-11-20] Raymond James: maintained Outperform, raised PT to $53 from $50; highlights differentiated utility/midstream mix, quality financial model, and strong FFO-to-debt metrics.
[2025-12-17] Mizuho: upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, raised PT to $54 from $51; cites attractive valuation vs peers, strong fundamentals, strong balance sheet, and minimal equity needs.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: balance-sheet strength, capital funding without dilution, diversified mix beyond a plain-vanilla utility, potential upside from gas volatility.
Cons: business mix has “doubters,” and with the stock already near targets and technically overbought, near-term upside may be harder to capture immediately.
Politicians/influential figures: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast NJR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NJR is 53.5 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 54 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NJR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NJR is 53.5 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 54 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 52.770
Low
53
Averages
53.5
High
54
Current: 52.770
Low
53
Averages
53.5
High
54
Mizuho
Neutral -> Outperform
upgrade
$51 -> $54
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$51 -> $54
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
upgrade
Neutral -> Outperform
Reason
Mizuho upgraded New Jersey Resources to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $54, up from $51. The firm cites the company's "attractive valuation and strong fundamentals" for the upgrade. New Jersey Resources trades at a 23% discount to peers on 2028 consensus estimates, compared to an average discount of 8% over the past five years, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the company's "strong" balance sheet, minimal equity needs and potential near-term earnings upside from natural gas market volatility are positives.
Raymond James
Outperform
maintain
$50 -> $53
2025-11-20
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
$50 -> $53
2025-11-20
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Raymond James raised the firm's price target on New Jersey Resources to $53 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is constructive on New Jersey Resources' ability to differentiate itself among steadier gas utilities through its core New Jersey Natural Gas utility, along with regulated midstream assets, and key unregulated businesses. While this business mix does have its doubters, the company has consistently performed well and runs a quality financial model, operating at a peer-leading 18%-20% FFO-to-debt ratio and regularly funding capex without material dilution, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NJR
