Should I Buy NGVT? NGVT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ingevity Corp (NGVT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

72.690

1 Day change

2.67%

52 Week Range

77.460

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock is trading above the key pivot (~69.76) but is also already around/above key Wall St targets (Wells Fargo $65; BMO $70), limiting near-term upside.
Trend is still constructive (bullish moving-average stack), but momentum is cooling (MACD positive but contracting) and the stock just dropped -2.6% on a down market day, suggesting you’re not getting an “advantage entry.”
Options positioning (very low put/call OI ratio) looks bullish, yet actual volume is minimal, so it’s not a strong, high-conviction sentiment signal.
With Q4 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (after hours) and recent YoY profit/EPS deterioration, risk/reward to buy immediately is not compelling versus waiting for either a pullback toward support or post-earnings clarity.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is above 0 (bullish) but positively contracting, implying upside momentum is fading.
RSI: RSI_6 = 61.3 (neutral-to-slightly-bullish), not yet overbought but not a “cheap” oversold entry either.
Key levels: Pivot 69.764 (near current 70.34). Immediate resistance R1 75.074, then R2 78.355. Supports S1 64.455, S2 61.174.
Near-term pattern odds (model based on similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of modest gains (+0.91% next day; +3% next week; +8.9% next month), but these are not strong enough to override the less-attractive entry point.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ratio at 0.29 is notably call-heavy (bullish lean).
But activity is thin: total volume only 6 calls and 0 puts today; this reduces confidence in reading sentiment from today’s tape.
Volatility: 30D IV ~46.7 vs historical vol ~27.5 (options relatively expensive). IV percentile ~28.7 / IV rank ~10.5 suggests IV is not extreme versus its own history, but it is elevated versus realized volatility.
Takeaway: OI suggests bullish bias, but low volume + relatively rich IV does not provide a strong “buy now” timing edge.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Portfolio actions: The company has been reshaping the business (sale of majority of Industrial Specialties closed Jan 5; exploring alternatives for other units), which can unlock value if executed well.
- Capital allocation narrative: BMO highlights debt reduction and planned shareholder returns (buybacks) supported by proceeds/free cash flow.
- Technically constructive trend remains intact (bullish MA alignment).
- Earnings catalyst ahead (2026-02-17 after hours): a clean quarter and upbeat outlook could re-rate the stock quickly.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

is soon (2026-02-17); given the prior quarter’s sharp YoY earnings decline, any miss or cautious guidance could hit the stock.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $333.1M, down ~0.21% YoY (flat-to-slight decline; not a growth quarter).
Profitability: Net income $43.5M, down ~140.6% YoY; EPS 1.18, down ~140.0% YoY (significant deterioration versus prior year).
Margin: Gross margin improved to 40.2% (+1.98% YoY), a positive operational sign, but it didn’t translate into better bottom-line results in the YoY comparison.
Interpretation: Mixed-to-weak growth profile recently (better gross margin, but sharp YoY earnings decline).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes skew mixed:
- 2026-01-28: Wells Fargo raised PT to $65 (from $60), maintained Equal Weight; still cautious due to uncertainty while the company explores alternatives for other businesses.
- 2025-12-10: BMO raised PT to $70 (from $64), maintained Outperform; constructive view on focusing on core platforms + debt reduction + buybacks.
- 2025-11-12: Wells Fargo raised PT to $55 (from $52), maintained Equal Weight; cited uncertainty in global auto recovery.
Wall Street pros (bull case): Portfolio simplification, potential asset sales, improved focus on core platforms, and shareholder returns/buybacks.
Wall Street cons (bear case): Business uncertainty during strategic review, cyclicality/auto recovery questions, and current price already near/above key targets (especially BMO’s $70; above Wells’ $65).

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NGVT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NGVT is 67 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 70.800

Low

Averages

High

Current: 70.800

Low

Averages

High

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight

maintain

$60 -> $65

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$60 -> $65

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Ingevity to $65 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates for Ingevity to account for the sale of the majority of its Industrial Specialties business, which closed on January 5. Wells stays on the sidelines given uncertainty as Ingevity explores alternatives for other businesses.

BMO Capital

Outperform

maintain

$64 -> $70

2025-12-10

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$64 -> $70

2025-12-10

maintain

Outperform

Reason

BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Ingevity to $70 from $64 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Following its portfolio review, the company announced that it is looking to sell both the APT and road markings businesses while continuing to focus on growing the two core platforms in the activated carbon Performance Materials segment and the Paving Tech platform, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With the proceeds and significant free cash flow, the management will reduce debt as well as return 15% to shareholders in the form of buybacks over the next two years, the firm notes.

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NGVT Should I Buy

NGVT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ingevity Corp (NGVT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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