Should I Buy NGD? NGD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy New Gold Inc (NGD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.570

1 Day change

12.09%

52 Week Range

13.630

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price is breaking down on the day (-5.77% regular session; -4.01% pre-market) and momentum is still bearish.
Even though sentiment (options + analysts) is constructive, the chart is not showing a confirmed reversal; odds favor more chop/down before a cleaner entry.
Best stance today for an impatient trader: hold off on new buys until price reclaims the ~$9.85 area (former support) or flushes toward ~$8.86 and stabilizes.

Technical Analysis

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.34) and expanding lower, signaling bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~27.5 suggests the stock is short-term oversold, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger without confirmation.
Key levels: Current price ~$9.655 is below S1 ~9.852 (lost support). Next notable support is S2 ~8.863; upside reclaim level is back above ~9.85, then pivot ~11.45.
Moving averages: MAs are converging (no clear uptrend support), consistent with a transition phase rather than a clean bullish trend.
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): modest edge only (next day ~50% chance to +0.52%; next week +0.13%; next month +2.75%)—not strong enough to override the bearish tape today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.21; Volume PCR 0.33), indicating bullish-to-risk-on positioning.
Activity: Today’s option volume (2,335) is elevated vs typical levels (today vs 30D avg volume ~35.91), suggesting heightened event-driven interest.
Volatility: IV is extremely elevated (30D IV ~84.5; IV percentile ~95.22) versus HV ~81.37—options are pricing large moves; this often aligns with event/merger/earnings uncertainty.
Skew implication: Heavy call OI (calls 102,201 vs puts 21,159) supports a bullish bias, but with IV this high, the market is also pricing meaningful two-way risk.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

on 2026-02-18 after hours with EPS estimate ~0.27, which can reset expectations if strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

with bearish MACD reduces probability of an immediate sustained bounce.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $462.5M, +83.53% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Net income: $142.3M, +275.46% YoY (major profitability improvement).
EPS: $0.18, +260.00% YoY.
Gross margin: 77.25, +24.56% YoY (margin expansion supports earnings quality).
Ownership flows (provided): Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral (no strong recent accumulation signal).
Congress/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from influential political trading).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-26 (Scotiabank): Raised PT to $12.75 from $10.50; reiterated Outperform; constructive macro view for gold/silver supports the group.
2026-01-23 (Canaccord): Raised PT to C$18 from C$15; reiterated Buy.
Wall Street pros: Upward PT revisions suggest improving confidence and a bullish medium-term view.
Wall Street cons: Despite bullish ratings, the stock’s near-term tape is weak today and the market is pricing elevated uncertainty (high IV), so timing is unfavorable for an immediate buy.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NGD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NGD is 9.37 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 9.430

Low

Averages

9.37

High

Current: 9.430

Low

Averages

9.37

High

Scotiabank

Eric Winmill

Outperform

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

Scotiabank

Eric Winmill

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank analyst Eric Winmill raised the firm's price target on New Gold to $12.75 from $10.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Gold & Precious Minerals stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm has increased both gold and silver forecasts, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank buying.

Canaccord

NULL -> Buy

maintain

$15 -> $18

2026-01-23

Reason

Canaccord

Price Target

$15 -> $18

2026-01-23

maintain

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Canaccord raised the firm's price target on New Gold to C$18 from C$15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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NGD Should I Buy

NGD Should I Buy

Should You Buy New Gold Inc (NGD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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