Should I Buy NFBK? NFBK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Northfield Bancorp Inc (NFBK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

13.870

1 Day change

2.14%

52 Week Range

14.050

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended/overbought (RSI elevated) and sitting just below near-term resistance (R1 ~ 13.665).
Options positioning is defensive (very high put open interest vs calls) and implied volatility is extremely elevated, which typically signals uncertainty and limited “clean” upside at this moment.
The Columbia Financial acquisition is a supportive catalyst, but the heavy “deal scrutiny” newsflow (law firm investigations) and lack of clear proprietary buy signals reduce the attractiveness of chasing today.
Best stance: HOLD/avoid new buys today; only consider buying on a pullback closer to support/pivot levels if you must enter quickly.

Technical Analysis

Trend/MAs: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.188) but “positively contracting,” suggesting upside momentum is still positive but fading.
RSI: RSI_6 = 77.175 (effectively overbought/extended), increasing the odds of a near-term pause or pullback.
Key levels: Pivot 12.794; Support S1 11.923; Resistance R1 13.665 and R2 14.203. Current price 13.57 is close to R1, implying tighter near-term upside vs downside to pivot.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats imply modest positive drift (next day +1.35% probability-weighted), but the stock is already stretched into resistance.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put open interest 1090 vs call open interest 277 => put-heavy positioning (OI put/call 3.94), typically bearish/hedging sentiment.
Activity: Today’s option volume is 0 (no meaningful real-time volume signal), so sentiment is inferred mainly from open interest.
Volatility: 30D IV ~ 177.33 with IV percentile ~ 97.61 (extremely high). This usually reflects event risk and can make directional buying less attractive (moves must be large to compensate for premium).
Open interest vs average: Today vs OI avg 30D ~ 120% suggests elevated positioning into current catalyst window.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event-driven support: Columbia Financial announced acquisition of Northfield Bancorp (~$597M), which can anchor the stock toward deal-implied value and reduce “fundamental drift.”
- Trend remains technically bullish (short/mid/long MAs stacked positively).
- Upcoming earnings date (2026-02-18 after hours) can create a catalyst window if guidance/updates align with deal progression (though this is two-sided).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Deal-related legal scrutiny: Multiple law firms investigating the merger fairness/fiduciary duties; while common, it adds headline risk and can slow sentiment.
- Options market is heavily put-skewed (OI put/call 3.94), suggesting hedging or bearish expectations.
- Overbought/extended technical condition near resistance (limited immediate upside, higher pullback risk).
- Extremely high implied volatility indicates uncertainty and can punish late entries if the stock doesn’t move enough.
- Earnings on 2026-02-18 can introduce downside surprise risk (especially given recent profitability deterioration).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: 36.342M, +23.34% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Profitability: Net income -27.402M (down -343.55% YoY) and EPS -0.69 (down -355.56% YoY) indicate a sharp deterioration into losses despite revenue growth.
Takeaway: Growth is present on revenue, but the magnitude of the loss makes near-term fundamentals a headwind unless the merger closes and/or cost/integration economics improve.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a recent trend summary cannot be verified here.
Wall Street-style pros (based on available info): announced acquisition can support valuation and reduce standalone uncertainty; technical trend is still upward.
Wall Street-style cons (based on available info): significant profitability decline in 2025/Q4; heavy put-skew/very high IV suggests caution; deal/legal headline risk may cap near-term upside.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NFBK stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NFBK is 12 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 13.580

Low

Averages

High

Current: 13.580

Low

Averages

High

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

maintain

$12

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$12

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Northfield Bancorp (NFBK) to $14.50 from $12 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The combined company with Columbia Financial (CLBK) is expected to be a strong competitor in the greater New Jersey and metro New York markets, including Brooklyn and Staten Island, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Keefe Bruyette

David Konrad

Market Perform

downgrade

$13 -> $12

2025-10-28

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

David Konrad

Price Target

$13 -> $12

2025-10-28

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst David Konrad lowered the firm's price target on Northfield Bancorp to $12 from $13 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm's estimates move modestly lower due to a smaller balance sheet and higher expenses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NFBK

Unlock Now

NFBK Should I Buy

NFBK Should I Buy

Should You Buy Northfield Bancorp Inc (NFBK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch