Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and MACD momentum is deteriorating.
Price is sitting right on/just below first support (S1 ~ 5.736 vs 5.72), so there may be a short-term bounce, but there’s no proprietary buy signal and no fresh catalyst.
Options positioning looks bullish (very low put/call OI), but elevated implied volatility suggests the market expects sharp moves and uncertainty—this is not a clean, high-conviction entry.
With recent guidance-related analyst target cuts and weakening profitability in the latest quarter, the near-term setup favors waiting rather than buying immediately.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader downtrend is intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0363 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~31.5 (near oversold territory but not a clear reversal signal); can support a tactical bounce, not a trend change.
Levels: Pivot 6.126 (needs reclaim to improve tone). Immediate support S1 5.736 (currently slightly below), next support S2 5.495. Resistance R1 6.515 then R2 6.756.
Pattern odds provided: ~60% chance of -0.41% next day, +1.36% next week, +0.32% next month → modest upside skew beyond 1-day, but not strong enough to override the bearish tape.
Sentiment from positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.16 is strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning).
Activity: Very low total volume today (10 puts, 0 calls recorded) but volume is elevated vs its own 30-day average (today vs avg ~15.15), so any prints matter more.
Volatility: 30D IV ~91.85 vs historical vol ~41.38; IV percentile ~82.6 → options are pricing large moves, typically reflecting uncertainty/risk around the outlook.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish by OI, but high IV implies the market is not confident about direction; this is not a “low-risk” buy setup.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Valuation/price action setup for a bounce: RSI near oversold and price near key support (S1/S2).
Street still has multiple bullish stances (Buy/Outperform) despite target cuts, implying longer-term product/platform belief.
Company narrative: differentiated end-to-end platform (integrated DSP/SSP + data infrastructure) could re-rate shares if growth re-accelerates.
Options OI skew (very low put/call) suggests investors are still positioned for upside.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and then holds above it.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 94.79M, +5.11% YoY (top-line still growing, but modest).
Profitability: Net income 4.21M, -71.06% YoY; EPS 0.07, -65% YoY → earnings power weakened sharply.
Margin: Gross margin 65.88%, down ~6.54% YoY → margin compression adds to near-term risk.
Overall: Growth exists, but the trend in profitability and margin is negative, which typically limits upside until visibility improves.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: analysts broadly maintained positive ratings (Buy/Outperform) but cut price targets after the FY guidance reduction; one firm (Craig-Hallum) downgraded to Hold.
Key changes:
Citizens JMP: Outperform maintained; PT cut to $12 from $15.
Canaccord: Buy maintained; PT cut to $12 from $14.
BTIG: Buy maintained; PT cut to $10 from $13.
Craig-Hallum: Downgraded to Hold from Buy; PT cut to $8 from $18.
Wall Street pros: differentiated platform and some areas of strength (self-serve/data partnerships), potential longer-term upside if ad budgets and DSP dynamics stabilize.
Wall Street cons: near-term headwinds (DSP partner spend shifts, competitive CTV CPMs, softer ad budgets) and a “penalty box” view until the next clear catalyst.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available (no politician signal).
Wall Street analysts forecast NEXN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NEXN is 11.67 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NEXN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NEXN is 11.67 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 5.700
Low
9
Averages
11.67
High
15
Current: 5.700
Low
9
Averages
11.67
High
15
Citizens JMP
Matthew Condon
Outperform
maintain
$15 -> $12
AI Analysis
2025-11-14
Reason
Citizens JMP
Matthew Condon
Price Target
$15 -> $12
AI Analysis
2025-11-14
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Citizens JMP analyst Matthew Condon lowered the firm's price target on Nexxen to $12 from $15 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Nexxen's Q3 Contribution ex-TAC was3% above consensus and EBITDA exceeded consensus by 2%, but the company lowered full-year top- and bottom-line guidance amid a shift in spending behavior from a major DSP customer, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite near-term headwinds, Nexxen offers a differentiated end-to-end platform anchored by its integrated DSP/SSP stack and proprietary data infrastructure, the firm says.
Canaccord
Buy
downgrade
$14 -> $12
2025-11-14
Reason
Canaccord
Price Target
$14 -> $12
2025-11-14
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Nexxen to $12 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Q3 results were broadly in line with expectations, with contribution ex-TAC and profitability modestly better than expected. Excluding the impact of political ad spend in year-ago comps, revenue and contribution ex-TAC both increased in the mid-teens, reflecting strength across desktop/mobile self-service and data partnerships, partially offset by tariff-related spending reductions for certain customers and more competitive CTV CPMs.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NEXN
