Buy now for a tactical rebound setup: NDAQ is extremely oversold (RSI-6 11) and trading very close to major support (83.12–84.80 zone).
Fundamentals and Street narrative remain supportive (record 2025 revenue headline; strong Q4 profitability; multiple price-target raises), which improves the odds that this dip gets bought.
Near-term sentiment is shaky (heavy put volume and expanding negative MACD), but for an impatient buyer the current location near support offers a favorable immediate entry versus chasing higher levels.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: Sharp selloff today (-4.28% to ~84.79) with bearish momentum; MACD histogram is negative (-1.712) and expanding lower, confirming downside pressure.
Oversold: RSI_6 at ~11.15 indicates capitulation-level oversold conditions that often precede short-term bounces.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition zone; direction is currently down, but compression can precede a snap-back move when oversold is extreme.
Key levels: S1 ~87.12 has been lost; price is now near S2 ~83.12 (critical support). Upside reference points if it rebounds: pivot ~93.60, then ~100.07.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment mix: Open interest skew is call-heavy (OI P/C 0.48) suggesting positioning is not structurally bearish, but today’s flow is strongly put-dominant (volume P/C 3.76) indicating near-term fear/hedging.
Volatility: IV percentile is elevated (86.85) and 30D IV (28.16) is below historical vol (34.58), implying the stock has been moving more than options are pricing recently; option activity is very high vs 30D average (263.7%).
Takeaway: Options tape reads defensively bearish in the very near term, but positioning (OI) is not panic-bearish—consistent with a selloff that can mean-revert if support holds.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
News/catalysts: Nasdaq’s proposed “Fast Entry” for Nasdaq-100 inclusion could support liquidity/attention for newly listed names and reinforces Nasdaq’s product/market-structure leadership narrative.
Partnership catalyst: Osaka Exchange partnering with Nasdaq to modernize derivatives infrastructure is a tangible Solutions/technology win.
Earnings momentum: Reported record 2025 net revenue headline and Q4 revenue beat vs expectations in the news flow supports confidence in the business trajectory.
Analyst tone: Multiple firms reiterate/raise targets (notably Morgan Stanley/Barclays) highlighting secular + cyclical tailwinds into 2026–27 (especially Solutions).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
signals traders are bracing for more downside in the immediate term.
Recent trend: Ratings are predominantly positive (Overweight/Buy) with a clear sequence of price-target increases from late-2025 into Jan-2026.
Notable updates: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight (Nov 2025) and continued raising PT to $116 (Jan 30, 2026); Barclays reiterated Overweight and raised/maintained PT around $115; BofA maintains Buy with PT $114; TD Cowen is more cautious with Hold around $105.
Wall Street pros: Secular tailwinds + expected cyclical acceleration in Solutions growth into 2026–27; improving revenue mix/quality and operating leverage.
Wall Street cons: Some caution around timing/near-term focus shifting to the Feb 25 investor day and sensitivity to market/volume conditions (implied by the more neutral Hold stance).
Wall Street analysts forecast NDAQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NDAQ is 105.89 USD with a low forecast of 96 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NDAQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NDAQ is 105.89 USD with a low forecast of 96 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 85.510
Low
96
Averages
105.89
High
115
Current: 85.510
Low
96
Averages
105.89
High
115
Morgan Stanley
Michael Cyprys
Overweight
maintain
$113 -> $116
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Michael Cyprys
Price Target
$113 -> $116
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys raised the firm's price target on Nasdaq to $116 from $113 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While durable underlying secular tailwinds persist, the firm sees cyclical tailwinds set to accelerate revenue growth across the Solutions business through 2026-27, the analyst tells investors.
TD Cowen
Hold
maintain
$104 -> $105
2026-01-30
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$104 -> $105
2026-01-30
maintain
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Nasdaq to $105 from $104 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following quarterly results and believe investors will now focus on its upcoming investor day on February 25th.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NDAQ
