Should I Buy NCNO? NCNO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy nCino Inc (NCNO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

18.150

1 Day change

1.00%

52 Week Range

34.550

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is in a clear downtrend (bearish MAs + worsening MACD) and has broken the near-term support zone.
Oversold conditions (RSI_6 ~9) can spark a short-term bounce, but without a confirmed reversal signal, the higher-probability path is continued volatility/downside toward the next support.
Sentiment is mixed: hedge funds buying is constructive, but insiders selling recently is a notable negative.
Options positioning is extremely call-heavy (very low put/call ratios), which can be bullish, but it also coincides with elevated IV—suggesting the market expects big moves rather than stable upside.
Net: stay on the sidelines (hold / do not initiate) until price reclaims broken support (~18.61+) or momentum indicators stop deteriorating.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling sustained downside momentum.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.589 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 at 9.428 = deeply oversold, increasing odds of a reflex bounce, but not a confirmed trend reversal.
Key levels:
- Current price: 18.14
- Immediate resistance/pivot: 21.362 (regaining this would improve the technical picture)
- Support: S1 18.612 (already below it), next support S2 16.913 (next downside magnet if weakness persists)
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Extremely call-skewed (OI put/call 0.05; volume put/call 0.12) = traders are positioned bullish/speculative.
Activity: Today’s options volume 233, about 105% of 30-day average (slightly elevated participation).
Volatility: IV30 ~50.94 vs historical vol ~49.16 (IV modestly above realized); IV percentile 72.91 suggests IV is relatively elevated vs its own history (option premiums not cheap).
Takeaway: Options market is leaning bullish, but the elevated IV implies the market is pricing large moves—this supports “bounce potential,” not “low-risk buy.”

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Deeply oversold RSI increases probability of a short-term mean-reversion bounce.
- Hedge fund activity: buying increased 356.68% over last quarter (constructive institutional signal).
- Some supportive analyst views remain (Overweight/Outperform ratings with high price targets vs current price).
- Prior commentary (from analysts) suggests AI adoption is building, which could be a medium-term narrative tailwind.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Clear technical downtrend with momentum still worsening (MACD expanding negative) and price below key support (S1 18.612).
- Insider selling: selling increased 152.37% over the last month (negative near-term signal).
- No news catalysts in the last week to interrupt the current downtrend.
- Earnings quality concern: despite revenue growth, net income and EPS declined sharply YoY in the latest reported quarter.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3.
Revenue: 152.163M, up 9.63% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income 6.539M, down -224.50% YoY; EPS 0.06, down -220.00% YoY (material deterioration in bottom-line performance vs last year).
Gross margin: 61.57%, up 0.47% YoY (slight improvement in gross profitability, but not flowing through to earnings).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets have been mixed but slightly biased to cuts/valuation resets (Barclays cut PT to 34 from 37; Truist cut to 27 from 32), while KBW raised PT to 36 from 34.5.
Ratings mix:
- Barclays: Overweight (PT 34)
- KBW: Outperform (PT 36)
- Truist: Hold (PT 27)
- BTIG: Neutral (initiation)
Wall Street pros: meaningful upside to targets vs current price (~18), recognition of improving demand/AI adoption narrative, and at least one “beat-and-raise” style note recently.
Wall Street cons: skepticism about the timing/magnitude of growth reacceleration and lingering end-market uncertainty; multiple firms prefer to stay neutral/hold until clearer acceleration appears.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NCNO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCNO is 34.2 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 38 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 17.970

Low

Averages

34.2

High

Current: 17.970

Low

Averages

34.2

High

Barclays

Saket Kalia

Overweight

downgrade

$37 -> $34

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

Reason

Barclays

Saket Kalia

Price Target

$37 -> $34

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Saket Kalia lowered the firm's price target on nCino to $34 from $37 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and price targets in the security, design, and vertical-specific software group as part of its 2026 outlook.

BTIG

Neutral

initiated

2025-12-16

Reason

BTIG

Price Target

2025-12-16

initiated

Neutral

Reason

BTIG initiated coverage of nCino with a Neutral rating.

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NCNO Should I Buy

NCNO Should I Buy

Should You Buy nCino Inc (NCNO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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