Not a good buy right now: the stock is in a clear downtrend (bearish MA stack + weakening MACD), and there is no Intellectia buy trigger to justify stepping in immediately.
Oversold RSI (RSI_6 ~16.9) can produce a short bounce, but with heavy hedge fund + insider selling, the odds favor continued pressure or choppy action rather than a clean reversal.
Event timing: next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-03-05 AH is the next meaningful catalyst; with very high IV, the market is pricing big moves, not a low-risk entry.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0237) and expanding lower → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
Mean-reversion setup: RSI_6 at ~16.9 signals deeply oversold conditions; a reflex bounce is possible, but it’s counter-trend.
Key levels: Price 3.40 is sitting right on/just below S1 (3.407). If 3.298 (S2) breaks, downside can accelerate. Upside resistance begins near Pivot 3.584 then R1 3.76.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/skew: Very low put/call OI ratio (0.1) suggests call-heavy open interest (bullish leaning), but today’s volume is tiny (total vol 1), so the signal is not robust.
Volatility: 30D IV ~157% (IV percentile ~96.8) is extremely elevated → options are pricing a large move (often around earnings/uncertainty), making “buy now” stock entries less attractive for an impatient entry.
Activity: Today vs 30D average volume is high in ratio terms, but the absolute volume is minimal; treat sentiment read as low confidence.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
could trigger a short-term bounce if the stock reclaims 3.58 (pivot) and holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strong distribution pressure: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up ~10438% QoQ) and insiders are also selling (up ~8251% MoM) — a major bearish sentiment/flow flag.
Profitability: Net income fell to $1.6M (-144.44% YoY) and EPS to $0.02 (-150% YoY), indicating significant earnings deterioration.
Margin: Gross margin rose to 29.81% (+20.01% YoY), a bright spot, but it hasn’t translated into stronger net income yet.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes show a slightly more cautious Street tone via price target cuts:
2026-01-22: B. Riley kept Neutral, cut PT to $4 from $5 (more subdued outlook; mentions slate/industry and WBD-related valuation pressure).
2026-01-07: Benchmark kept Buy, cut PT to $6 from $7 (expects Q4 revenue modestly below guidance due to weaker attendance).
Wall Street pros/cons view:
Pros: Still at least one Buy rating (Benchmark) with PT well above current price, implying upside if attendance/advertising normalize.
Cons: Another firm remains Neutral with a PT only modestly above current price, and both firms reduced targets recently—suggesting upside is conditional, not immediate.
Wall Street analysts forecast NCMI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCMI is 5.83 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 6.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NCMI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCMI is 5.83 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 6.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.370
Low
5
Averages
5.83
High
6.5
Current: 3.370
Low
5
Averages
5.83
High
6.5
B. Riley
Drew Crum
Neutral
downgrade
$5 -> $4
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
Reason
B. Riley
Drew Crum
Price Target
$5 -> $4
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
B. Riley analyst Drew Crum lowered the firm's price target on National CineMedia (NCMI) to $4 from $5 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm reviewed 4Q25 and previews exhibitor earnings with a slightly more subdued but still positive outlook following a weak holiday box office, a reassessed film slate, and potential valuation pressure from Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)-related developments, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Benchmark
Buy
downgrade
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Benchmark lowered the firm's price target on National CineMedia to $6 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Driven by weaker-than-expected attendance, the firm expects National CineMedia to report Q4 revenue modestly below guidance, but within the guided range on profitability, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
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