Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and there are no proprietary buy signals today.
Price (13.26) is slightly below the pivot (13.326) and only modestly above nearby support (S1 13.058), so downside risk to support remains if weakness continues.
Insider buying is a meaningful positive, but the latest quarter showed sharp YoY declines in revenue/EPS, which weakens the near-term fundamental setup.
Best stance right now: hold/avoid new buys until price reclaims the pivot and starts repairing the moving-average structure or a SwingMax/AI signal appears.
Pattern-based forward odds (given): 70% chance of +1.96% next day, +8.61% next week, +40.25% next month—constructive near-term probabilities, but they conflict with the still-bearish MA structure.
reflects a less favorable operating backdrop (notably lower-rate impacts).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 48.382M, down 26.04% YoY (contraction).
Net Income: 18.658M, down 49.08% YoY (material profitability decline).
EPS: 0.38, down 43.28% YoY (weaker earnings power vs prior year).
Gross Margin: 97.17%, down 0.63% YoY (still very high, but slightly compressed).
Overall: growth trend is negative in the latest quarter, which makes it harder to justify an aggressive “buy now” without technical confirmation.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: 2026-01-27 Citizens lowered price target to $16 from $18, maintained Outperform.
Implied view: still sees upside (PT above current 13.26) but acknowledges a tougher environment tied to lower rates and shifting private-capital earnings drivers.
Wall Street pros: scale/diversification may support resilience into 2026; manager selection and underlying earnings quality matter.
Wall Street cons: lower-rate backdrop can pressure earnings/returns; outlook is mixed across products, prompting more conservative targets.
Wall Street analysts forecast NCDL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCDL is 16.5 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NCDL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCDL is 16.5 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.310
Low
15
Averages
16.5
High
18
Current: 13.310
Low
15
Averages
16.5
High
18
Citizens
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$18 -> $16
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Citizens
Price Target
$18 -> $16
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
Citizens lowered the firm's price target on Nuveen Churchill to $16 from $18 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The private capital industry is adjusting to a new operating backdrop marked by lower interest rates, creating mixed impacts across products but underscoring the importance of understanding underlying earnings drivers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Scale and diversification should support resilient growth into 2026, making manager selection increasingly critical despite expectations for continued industry expansion, the firm says.
UBS
Doug Harter
Neutral
downgrade
$17 -> $15
2025-10-14
Reason
UBS
Doug Harter
Price Target
$17 -> $15
2025-10-14
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Doug Harter lowered the firm's price target on Nuveen Churchill to $15 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NCDL
