Should I Buy NBHC? NBHC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

41.750

1 Day change

1.31%

52 Week Range

43.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: near-term price-probability model points to continued drift lower (next day/week/month skew negative).
Upside to the most recent Street target is limited ($42 vs $40.96), while fundamentals recently deteriorated (Q4 net income/EPS down ~43% YoY).
Heavy insider selling trend (up 434% last month) is a meaningful bearish signal that outweighs the mildly bullish moving-average setup.
With no Intellectia buy signals today (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax), there’s no high-conviction timing edge suggesting an immediate entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend has been constructive, but today’s -2.05% drop shows near-term weakness.
MACD: Histogram is positive (0.0304) but contracting, suggesting bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 54.79 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal.
Key levels: Pivot 40.732 is the immediate line to hold; below that, support sits at 39.074 (S1) then 38.05 (S2). Resistance is 42.39 (R1) then 43.414 (R2).
Quant/Pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply a 70% chance of further declines (-0.7% next day, -1.67% next week, -3.19% next month), which argues against buying immediately.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/flow is effectively absent (0 call OI, 2 put OI; 0 volume), so options aren’t providing a strong sentiment read.
Volatility: 30D IV ~59.19 vs historical volatility ~28.03 suggests options are priced rich; IV percentile ~64.94 implies elevated relative IV (market pricing in uncertainty).
With thin/zero volume, treat options-based signals as low-confidence for timing.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Acquisition integration/talent build: Inducement awards tied to the Vista Bancshares acquisition support staffing and execution in the Texas growth market.
- Analyst upgrade backdrop: Stephens upgraded to Overweight with a $42 target, citing valuation discount and Vista-driven scale in Texas.
- Longer-term technical structure remains constructive via bullish moving averages (if support levels hold).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are selling, and selling increased ~434% over the last month—commonly a near-term bearish tell.
- Earnings pressure: Q4 profitability weakened sharply (net income/EPS down ~43% YoY), which can cap multiple expansion.
- Near-term statistical bias is negative based on similar candlestick-pattern outcomes (probabilistic drift lower).
- Market backdrop risk: Broad market was down (S&P 500 -1.03%), and NBHC underperformed today (-2.05%).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $100.64M, up ~0.77% YoY (modest growth).
Profitability: Net income $16.04M, down ~42.93% YoY.
EPS: $0.42, down ~42.47% YoY.
Takeaway: Top-line is stable, but earnings compression is significant—weak near-term fundamental momentum.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change: On 2025-11-10, Stephens upgraded NBHC to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $42 price target.
Price target vs current: ~$42 target implies only ~2.5% upside from $40.96, limiting reward for buying immediately.
Wall Street pros: Valuation discount vs peers (per Stephens) and Vista acquisition adds Texas growth exposure.
Wall Street cons: Recent earnings deterioration (Q4 net income/EPS down sharply) and insider selling trend undermine confidence in near-term upside.
Politicians/Influential trading: No recent Congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NBHC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NBHC is 42 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 41.210

Low

Averages

High

Current: 41.210

Low

Averages

High

Stephens

Andrew Terrell

Equal Weight -> Overweight

upgrade

$42

AI Analysis

2025-11-10

Reason

Stephens

Andrew Terrell

Price Target

$42

AI Analysis

2025-11-10

upgrade

Equal Weight -> Overweight

Reason

Stephens analyst Andrew Terrell upgraded National Bank to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $42 price target. The recent pullback has created a "compelling" valuation discount for National Bank relative to peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company's recently announced purchase of Vista brings scale in the "higher growth" Texas market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

maintain

$44 -> $46

2025-09-17

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$44 -> $46

2025-09-17

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on National Bank to $46 from $44 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm is \"incrementally more positive\" on the shares following the Vista Bank acquisition. The analyst believes the deals offers a \"compelling\" strategic fit for National Bank at a reasonable price.

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NBHC Should I Buy

NBHC Should I Buy

Should You Buy National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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