Not a good buy right now: price is in a clear bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with weak fundamentals and fresh analyst target cuts to ~$9–$10.
Oversold RSI (19.93) can trigger short bounces, but with no proprietary buy signals today and deteriorating credit/guidance commentary, odds favor avoiding/ selling rather than chasing a dip.
Near-term levels: support at 9.61 then 8.91; resistance/pivot at 10.73—stock needs to reclaim/hold above ~10.73 to look like a tradable reversal.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.198 (below 0) and only “negatively contracting” (selling pressure easing, but not reversed).
RSI: 19.93 (oversold) suggests potential for a reflex bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger in a downtrend.
Key levels: Pivot 10.734 (must reclaim for trend improvement); Support S1 9.609 then S2 8.914; Resistance R1 11.859.
Pattern-based projection (similar candlesticks): ~70% chance of -0.3% next day, +0.66% next week, +2.2% next month—modest upside skew longer, but weak near-term.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Low put/call OI ratio (0.34) and zero put volume today suggests bullish/call-skewed sentiment or lack of downside hedging.
Activity: Call volume 1,778; total volume 1,778 with ~307.6% vs 30-day average—unusually active, but almost entirely on calls.
Volatility: 30D IV 33.96 with low IV percentile (17.5) / IV rank (~11.9) implies options are relatively cheap vs recent history, consistent with post-event vol crush and reduced fear.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
can fuel a short-term bounce if support ~9.61 holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strong downtrend and bearish moving-average stack; any bounce is fighting the prevailing trend.
Analyst sentiment is broadly negative post-Q4: multiple firms cut targets to ~$9–$10 and several maintain Sell/Underperform/Underweight.
No supportive news catalysts reported in the last week to change sentiment or drive a reversal.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $761M, -21.47% YoY (sharp contraction).
Net income: -$5M, down -120.83% YoY (turned negative).
EPS: -$0.05, down -122.73% YoY.
Gross margin: 17.48%, down -30.30% YoY (profitability compression).
Overall: fundamentals are weakening rather than stabilizing, which reduces the odds that an oversold technical condition turns into a durable uptrend immediately.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: rapid, clustered price-target cuts after Q4 results; overall tone shifted more cautious on credit/provisions and weaker guidance.
Deutsche Bank (2026-01-29): Hold, PT cut to $9 from $15 (reset expectations; recovery pushed out).
TD Cowen (2026-01-29): Sell, PT cut to $9 from $11 (credit deterioration + weak guidance).
Barclays (2026-01-29): Underweight, PT cut to $9 from $11 (reserve build; provision headwinds).
BofA (2026-01-29): Underperform, PT cut to $10 from $11 (EPS miss; underwhelming 2026 guidance).
Morgan Stanley (2026-01-28): Equal Weight, PT cut to $12 from $13 (cuts FY26/FY27 EPS estimates materially).
Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—turnaround “underway” and potential longer-term normalization; Cons—near-term fundamentals challenging, provisions/credit headwinds, and guidance reset lower.
Wall Street analysts forecast NAVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NAVI is 13 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NAVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NAVI is 13 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 10.010
Low
11
Averages
13
High
18
Current: 10.010
Low
11
Averages
13
High
18
Deutsche Bank
Mark DeVries
Hold
downgrade
$15 -> $9
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Mark DeVries
Price Target
$15 -> $9
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Deutsche Bank analyst Mark DeVries lowered the firm's price target on Navient to $9 from $15 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The company resetting expectations much lower and pushing out its earnings recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
TD Cowen
NULL -> Sell
downgrade
$11 -> $9
2026-01-29
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$11 -> $9
2026-01-29
downgrade
NULL -> Sell
Reason
TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Navient to $9 from $11 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm they lowered their estimates on credit deterioration and weak guidance.
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