Should I Buy MWA? MWA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Mueller Water Products Inc (MWA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

29.180

1 Day change

4.48%

52 Week Range

29.240

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is overbought (RSI-6 ~80.6) and trading near/above key resistance, which is a poor entry for an impatient buyer.
No supportive Intellectia signals today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax), so there’s no “must-buy now” timing edge from the proprietary tools.
Wall Street stance is Neutral with targets ($26–$28) at/below the current price ($28.49), implying limited upside near-term.
Options positioning is bullish (call-skew), but with elevated IV vs realized volatility, the market may be pricing an event (earnings) and near-term swings—more consistent with “wait/hold” than “chase-buy.”

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (uptrend intact).
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.13 and expanding, confirming upside momentum.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 = 80.611 signals stretched conditions and higher pullback probability.
Levels: Pivot 27.427; Resistance R1 28.309 (already exceeded) and R2 28.854 (nearby). Support S1 26.544.
Pattern-based projection: Similar-pattern stats suggest ~ -3.41% over next week (near-term downside risk), despite ~ +4.88% next month potential.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bullish skew (OI P/C 0.67 and volume P/C 0.05 = call-dominant flow).
Activity: Today’s option volume 105 vs 30D avg shows a large spike (~403.85%), indicating heightened attention.
Volatility: IV (30D) ~41.48 vs HV ~22.43 → options look priced for a bigger move than recent realized moves.
Positioning note: Put OI 323 vs call OI 480 supports a modestly bullish positioning backdrop, but the stock being overbought can still mean call-chasing late in the move.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings (Q1): Company has a strong recent beat pattern (last two years: EPS beats 88%, revenue beats 100%).
- Latest reported quarter strength (2025/Q4): strong operating performance and margin improvement trends.
- Technical trend remains upward (bullish moving-average stack + positive MACD).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term setup is stretched: RSI overbought + price pressing R2 (28.854) increases pullback risk.
- Earnings revisions trend (last 3 months): EPS 1 up / 2 down, and revenue estimates saw 4 downward adjustments → demand/revenue expectations have softened.
- Analyst targets are not supportive at current price: Goldman PT $26, Neutral; Baird PT $28, Neutral.
- Mentioned macro/cost headwinds in analyst commentary: tariffs/increased costs and weaker end-market demand/volumes risks.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $380.8M, +9.36% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $52.6M, +426% YoY; EPS $0.33, +450% YoY (very strong bottom-line acceleration).
Margins: Gross margin 36.76%, +15.42% YoY (clear improvement trend).
Takeaway: Fundamentals look strong, but the current entry price is the issue (overbought + limited Street upside).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent actions: Both visible notes are Neutral.
Price targets moved down: Baird $30 → $28 (Neutral); Goldman $29 → $26 (Neutral).
Wall Street pros: strong recent execution (sales/EPS beats, margin expansion).
Wall Street cons: potential tariff/cost pressures, possible weaker demand/volumes, and lower forward EBITDA growth expectations.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Influential/Politician trading check:

Congress trading (last 90 days): No recent congress trading data available.

Institutional/insider trend check:

Hedge funds: Neutral (no significant last-quarter trend).
Insiders: Neutral (no significant last-month trend).

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MWA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MWA is 27.2 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 27.930

Low

Averages

27.2

High

Current: 27.930

Low

Averages

27.2

High

Baird

Michael Halloran

Neutral

maintain

$28 -> $33

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Baird

Michael Halloran

Price Target

$28 -> $33

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Baird analyst Michael Halloran raised the firm's price target on Mueller Water to $33 from $28 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following results which saw no change in its oulook.

Baird

Neutral

downgrade

$30 -> $28

2025-11-10

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$30 -> $28

2025-11-10

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Baird lowered the firm's price target on Mueller Water to $28 from $30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results where there were few surprises and a prudent 2026 framework.

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MWA Should I Buy

MWA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Mueller Water Products Inc (MWA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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