Should I Buy MTSI? MTSI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

235.870

1 Day change

3.54%

52 Week Range

240.850

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Buy now: Fundamentals and guidance just re-accelerated (beat + raise), trend structure remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), and Street targets still imply upside from current levels.
Near-term path: Price is above the pivot (219.07) with the next key upside level at R1 ~234.03; risk increases if it loses the pivot zone.
Sentiment check: Options positioning is call-heavy (OI put/call 0.22), supporting a bullish bias, though very high IV suggests choppy trading around earnings digestion.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish trend structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, consistent with an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.921 (below 0) but negatively contracting (bearish momentum is fading, often an early stabilization/continuation cue).
RSI: RSI_6 58.9 (neutral-to-slightly-bullish; not overbought).
Key levels: Pivot 219.07 (important near-term support/decision level). Supports: S1 204.11, S2 194.86. Resistances: R1 234.03, R2 243.28.
Tape context: Regular session up +4.88% while pre-market showed -5.13% (suggests earnings-driven volatility and potential “sell-the-news” swings even if the bigger trend remains constructive).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put/call 0.22 = strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning). Volume put/call 0.81 = closer to balanced on the day (less one-sided than OI).
Volatility: IV (30D) 72.5 vs historical vol 52.7; IV percentile 96.41 = options are pricing unusually large near-term moves (elevated uncertainty/volatility premium).
Flow intensity: Today’s option volume 630, about 177% of 30D average; open interest also elevated vs average (~146%), indicating unusually active derivatives interest around the event.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings beat (FY2026 Q1 / QDEC 2025): Adjusted EPS $1.02 vs $1.00 est; revenue $271.6M above expectations.
- Growth: Q1 revenue +24.5% YoY (continued strong demand backdrop).
- Margins: Adjusted gross margin 57.6%, signaling operational leverage/cost control improvement.
- Guidance beat/raise: Q2 revenue $281M–$289M and adj. EPS $1.05–$1.09, both above consensus (key catalyst for multiple expansion / estimate raises).
- Estimate revisions (pre-earnings): In last 3 months, EPS +12 up / 1 down, revenue +13 up / 0 down (constructive setup that the print reinforced).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event-volatility / digestion risk: Mixed immediate price reaction (pre-market down while regular session up) implies potential whipsaws after the earnings catalyst.
- Valuation pushback risk: Susquehanna initiated Neutral citing elevated valuation (could cap near-term upside if multiples are already rich).
- Options pricing indicates uncertainty: Extremely high IV percentile can coincide with short-term mean reversion after the catalyst passes.
- Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern model suggests muted expected returns short-term (next week slightly negative in the provided pattern stats), implying gains may come in bursts rather than a smooth grind up.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter (FY2026 Q1 / QDEC 2025, reported 2026-02-05): Revenue $271.6M (about +24.5% YoY), adj. EPS $1.02, adj. gross margin 57.6%.
Guidance (FY2026 Q2): Revenue $281M–$289M and adj. EPS $1.05–$1.09 (implies continued sequential growth and supports an accelerating earnings run-rate).
Prior quarter snapshot (2025/Q4): Revenue $261.17M (+30.12% YoY), net income $45.12M (+53.40% YoY), EPS $0.61 (+56.41% YoY); gross margin 54.49% (slightly down YoY), suggesting profitability is improving overall even with some quarterly GM noise.
Ownership/trading context: Hedge funds neutral (no major trend last quarter). Insiders neutral (no major trend last month). Congress trading: no recent data.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Clear upswing in targets since Nov 2025, with multiple firms raising price targets after strong execution and AI/industrial demand optimism.
Most recent/highlight: BofA (2026-01-21) raised PT to $260 (Buy). Stifel (2026-01-16) raised PT to $215 (Buy). Truist raised to $200 (Buy). Evercore raised to $202 (Outperform). Barclays raised to $200 (Overweight).
Primary Wall St. bull case: AI infrastructure + industrial rebound + pricing, plus margin improvements and a path toward $1B+ annual sales (per Stifel commentary).
Primary Wall St. bear case: Valuation sensitivity after the run (Susquehanna Neutral $200), meaning the stock may need continued beats/raises to keep pushing higher.

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MTSI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTSI is 193.5 USD with a low forecast of 165 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 227.800

Low

165

Averages

193.5

High

220

Current: 227.800

Low

165

Averages

193.5

High

220

JPMorgan

Peter Peng

Neutral

maintain

$165 -> $240

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Peter Peng

Price Target

$165 -> $240

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Peter Peng raised the firm's price target on Macom to $240 from $165 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported solid results and guidance on data center upside, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Stifel

Buy

maintain

$215 -> $255

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$215 -> $255

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel raised the firm's price target on Macom to $255 from $215 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After a strong start in FY26, the firm believes this could represent a year in which Macom demonstrates continued growth across its three end markets, the analyst tells investors.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MTSI

Unlock Now

MTSI Should I Buy

MTSI Should I Buy

Should You Buy MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch